Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Long memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates

Gil-Alana, Luis A. and Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin and Tansel, Aysit (2017): Long memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_81571.pdf

Download (755kB) | Preview

Abstract

In this paper we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in most cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and permanence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban and youth unemployment series. The possibility of non-linearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long lasting effects on the unemployment rates.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.