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DEDOLLARISATION DE L’ECONOMIE CONGOLAISE : Atouts, contraintes et perspectives.

MALINGUMU, Crispin (2015): DEDOLLARISATION DE L’ECONOMIE CONGOLAISE : Atouts, contraintes et perspectives. Published in: cahiers économiques et sociaux , Vol. XXIX, No. Dédolarisation de l'économie congolaise: Atouts, contraintes et perspectives (4 September 2015): pp. 222-256.

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Abstract

This paper examines the reasons for the downward irreversibility of dollarization and analyses possibilities of de-dollarization of the Congolese economy. During the 2000s, stabilizing the macroeconomic framework has not ended this phenomenon. Indeed, the dollarization rate approximated by the ratio on foreign currency deposit on the total currency, deposit on total currency deposits passed respectively from on average of 35% in 2001 to more than 69.1% at the end of 2013 for the first while the other one remain on average 81% during the period. The study revealed that the persistence of this phenomenon in monetary stability is not a clear sign of distrust vis-à-vis the Congolese franc but rather a response of portfolio diversification of economic agents with a financial and banking system rudimentary and poor fiduciary structure. Under these conditions, a high degree of dollarization reflects a desire to diversify a portfolio of economic agents in a context where investment opportunities are narrow. Thus, the de-dollarization requires, beyond sustainable levels decline expected inflation and the depreciation of the exchange rate, or mastery of the volatility of these variables; restoring confidence and expanding opportunities for asset diversification of economic agents. Confidence as a psychological factor goes beyond macroeconomic considerations and fits more in the political, sociological or cultural logic of the populations.

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