The Impact of Citrus Exports on Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis from Tunisia

Bakari, Sayef (2017): The Impact of Citrus Exports on Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis from Tunisia.

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is investigating the impact of citrus exports on economic growth on Tunisia since it never been treated before. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of Tunisian Central Bank for the periods between 1970 and 2016 was tested by using co integration analysis of Error Correction Model. According to the result of the analysis, citrus exports have not any influence on economic growth in the long term. However, empirical results show that there is a positive unidirectional causality from citrus exports to economic growth in the short run. These results provide on evidence that citrus exports, thus, are not seen as source of economic growth in Tunisia and suffer a lot of problems and poor economic strategy. For this reason, it is very important to make new reforms and to create robustness strategies to refine investment and trade strategy in this sector, so it can support Tunisian economic flourishing.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Citrus Exports, Economic Growth, Cointegration, ECM, Tunisia
• Subjects: F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy ; International Trade Organizations; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth ; Aggregate Productivity ; Cross-Country Output Convergence; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy

References

Akbay O.S (2011). Trade-Growth Nexus: Turkish Case. Euro Economic, Issue 2(28), 108 - 113.

Alam F and Myovella G (2016). Causality between Agricultural Exports and GDP and its Implications for Tanzanian Economy. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting. Volume 3, Issue:1, 1-18.

Anderson K (2010). International Trade Policies Affecting Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.

Ardeni P G and Freebairn J (2002). The Macroeconomics of Agriculture. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1455-1485 Elsevier.

Asmah. E.E,. 1998. Export performance and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Ghana 1966-1996. M. Phil. Thesis. University of Cape Coast.

Baharumshah, Z.A and Rashid, S (1999). Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Based on Multivariate Time Series. Asian Economic Journal, Vol 13, No 4, 389 – 406.

Bakari, S (2017). "The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Exports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Gabon," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 40-57, June.

Bakari, S (2017). «The Impact Of Domestic Investment on Economic Growth: New Evidence From Malaysia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(2), pages 105-121, March.

Bakari, S (2017). "Appraisal of Trade Potency on Economic Growth in Sudan: New Empirical and Policy Analysis," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(4), pages 213-225, December.

Bakari, S. (2017). "The Three-Way Linkages between Export, Import and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 81080, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Bakari, S. and Krit, M (2017). The Nexus between exports, imports and economic growth: Evidence from Mauritania. International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, 5(1): 10-17.

Bakari, S and Mabrouki, M (2017). "Impact Of Exports And Imports On Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panama," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(1), pages 67-79, March.

Bakari, S., Mabrouki, M and elmakki, A, (2017). "The Impact of Domestic Investment in the Industrial Sector on Economic Growth with Partial Openness: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 81039, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Balassa, B., 1978. Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, vol.5, 181-189.

Ben Hammouda, H., Chemingui M. A. et Bchir M. H. (2007) ‘’Ten Years after Implementing The Barcelona Process: What can be learned from the Tunisian experience.” ATPC Working Paper, N° 63, 2007

Cong T.P and Hiep N.Q (2017). The Transmission Mechanism of Bilateral Relationship Between Exports and Economic Growth in Vietnam. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2017, 7(2), 536-543.

Dawson, P.J. (2005). Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries. Agricultural Economics, 33, 145-152.

Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979). Distribution of Estimators of Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31.

Dickey, D. and Fuller W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.

Din, M (2004). Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework. The Pakistan Development Review, 43 : 2 (Summer 2004) pp. 105–124.

Edeme K R, Ifelunini I A and Nkalu N C (2016). A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth of ECOWAS Countries. ACTA OECONOMICA PRAGENSIA. Vol.24 (05) 2016.

Edwards, S., (1998). Openness. Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know? Economic Journal, 108.

Ekanayake, E.M. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Co-Integration and Error Correction Models. Journal of Economic Development, 24(2), 43-56.

Forgha N.G and Aquilas N.A (2014) "The Impact of Timber Exports on Economic Growth in Cameroon: An Econometric Investigation", Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 46-60.

Gollin D (2010). Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.

Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric and Cross-Spectral Method. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.

Granger, C.W.J., Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regression in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.

Hamdi, H (2013). Testing export-led growth in Tunisia and Morocco: New evidence using the Toda and Yamamoto procedure. Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 677-686.

Hussain M A (2014). Economic Growth, Exports and Imports in Pakistan: Granger Causality Analysis. Economic Growth in Pakistan. Volume 13 (2014).

Hussaini S H, India C, Abdullahi B A and India C (2015). Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Analysis. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Emerging Trends in Social Science Research (IS15Chennai Symposium), 3-5 April 2015 Paper ID: C542.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.

Johnston, B.F. and Mellor, J.W. (1961). The Role of Agriculture in Economic Development. American Economic Review, 51, 566-593.

Kalaitzi A.S and Cleeve E (2017). Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth. Eurasian Bus Rev. DOI 10.1007/s40821-017-0089-1

Karp L S and Perloff J M (2002). A Synthesis of Agricultural Trade Economics. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 37, pages 1945-1998 Elsevier.

Keho Y (2017). The Exports and Economic Growth Nexus in Cote D'ivoire: Evidence from a Multivariate Time Series Analysis. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling. Vol. 5, No. 2, 135-146.

Kwa and Bassoume (2007). Exploring the Linkages between Agricultural Exports and Sustainable Development. Ecofair trade dialogue [Discussion Paper] No. 2, 1-38.

Levin, A. and Raut, L.K. (1997). Complementarities between Exports and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence from the Semi-Industrialized Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46, 155-174.

Lopez R (2002). The Economics of Agriculture in Developing Countries: The Role of the Environment. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1213-1247 Elsevier.

Mahmood, K. and Munir, S. (2017). Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment. Qual Quant. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0534-3.

Mehrara M and Baghbanpour J (2016). The Contribution of Industry and Agriculture Exports to Economic Growth : The Case of Developing Countries. World Scientifics News. 46 (2016).100-111.

Michaely, M. (1977). Exports and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Development Economics, 4, 49-53.

Mohsen, A.S (2015). Effects of Exports and Imports on the Economic Growth of Syria. Euro-Asian Journal of Economics and Finance. Volume: 3, Issue: 4, Pages: 253-261.

Nadeem, M. (2007). Pakistan Agricultural Export Performance in the Light of Trade Liberalization and Economic Reforms. [Working Papers] 45854, University of Balochistan, Commerce Department.

Nguyen N.T.K(2017) "The Long Run and Short Run Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Economic Growth of Vietnam", Asian Economic and Financial Review, Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 519-527.

Oluwatoyese O P, Applanaidu S D and Abdulrazak N (2016). Agricultural Export, Oil Export and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Multivariate Co-integration Approach. International Journal of Environnemental & Agriculture Research. Vol. 2, Issue 2. 2016.

Pacific Y.K.T,. Shan L.J and Ramadhan A.A (2017). Military Expenditure, Export, FDI and Economic Performance in Cameroon. Global Business Review. 18(3) 1–13

Pingali P and Kelley T (2007). The Role of International Agricultural Research in Contributing to Global Food Security and Poverty Alleviation: The case of the CGIAR. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Elsevier.

Rai S K and Jhala P (2015). Impact of Exports and Imports on Growth Rate of India: An Empirical Enquiry. Pacific Business Review International. Volume 8 issue 6 December 2015.

Ram, R,. (1987). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Time-series and Cross-section Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 33, 415-425.

Saaed A.A.J and Hussain M.A (2015). Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS) 6(1):13-21.

Sanjuan-Lopez, A.I. and Dawson, P.J. (2010). Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A panel Co-Integration Approach. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(3), 565-583.

Savvides, A., (1995). Economic Growth in Africa, World Development, 23 (3).

Schiff M and Valdes A (2002). Agriculture and the Macroeconomy, with Emphasis on Developing Countries. In: Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 1421-1454 Elsevier.

Velnampy T and Achchuthan S (2013). Export, Import and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sri Lanka. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development. Vol.4, No.9, 2013.

Turan G and Karamanaj B (2014). An Empirical Study on Import, Export and Economic Growth in Albania. Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. Vol 3 No 3 June 2014.

Tyler, W., (1981). Growth and Exports Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of Development Studies, vol. 9, 121-130.

Yüksel S and Zengin S (2016). Causality Relationship between Import, Export and Growth Rate in Developing Countries. International Journal of Commerce and Finance, Vol. 2, Issue 1, 2016, 147-156.