One woman, one vote. Though not in the USA, UK and France

Colignatus, Thomas (2017): One woman, one vote. Though not in the USA, UK and France.

Abstract

This paper gives an economic analysis of the design of electoral systems. It particular it evaluates how political science has been dealing with this issue. The main choice is between either district representation (DR) or equal or proportional representation (EPR). It appears that DR obliterates votes so that the principle of One Woman, One Vote and also article 21 in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights are violated. Holland in 1917 switched from DR to EPR but countries like the USA, UK and France still adopt DR. Brexit can be diagnosed as a result of the UK system of DR and the build-up of frustration on democracy within the UK itself. It appears that the advisory role of political scientists cannot be overlooked. Political science started in the humanities and only gradually adopted the methods of science, e.g. with the foundation of APSA in 1903. However, political science on the particular topic of electoral systems apparently still remains with its tradition in the humanities, in which assumptions are more important than analysis and hard data. Political science on electoral systems is no experimental science, since one cannot experiment with nations and their elections. The situation is similar as for macro-economics or astronomy that also are observational sciences, yet the latter fields have managed better in adopting the methods of science. A new development uses laboratory experiments, but these obviously cannot replace actual elections for the US House of Representatives or the UK House of Commons. This paper focuses on a deconstruction of a study by Carey & Hix (2011) (C&H) on an “electoral sweet spot”, that favours DR and that would mean the end of EPR. Other evidence on other studies is given in appendices. The deconstruction of the C&H study is sufficient evidence though, since it constitutes the culmination of a particular branch in political science. This branch appears to contain fundamental confusion and bias. Political science might regard this deconstruction as mere opinion but for science an empirical observation constitutes a fact. C&H also take ‘the most frequent of good outcomes’ as ‘thus the best overall’, which confuses frequency with optimality. This is more particular to their study though other political scientists are already copying this confusion instead of criticising it. Proper science should step in and assist political science to become a real science.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Institution: Thomas Cool Consultancy & Econometrics
• Language: English
• Keywords: General Economics, Social Choice, Social Welfare, Election, Majority Rule, Parliament, Legislative, Party System, Representation, Proportion, District, Voting, Seat, Equity, Inequality, Lorenz, Gini coefficient, Voting Paradox, Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, Accountability, Interest congruence, Brexit, Disproportionality, SDID
• Subjects: A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A10 - General; D - Microeconomics > D6 - Welfare Economics > D63 - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D71 - Social Choice ; Clubs ; Committees ; Associations; D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References

Colignatus is the name in science of Thomas Cool, econometrician and teacher of mathematics, Scheveningen, Holland, http://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pco170.htm

Amy, D.J. (1996/7), “A Brief History of Proportional Representation in the United States”, http://www.fairvote.org/a_brief_history_of_proportional_representation_in_the_united_states

Andeweg, R.B. and J.J.A. Thomassen (2005), "Modes of Political Representation: Toward a New Typology", Legislative Studies Quarterly, XXX, 4, 507-528

Bogaards, M. (2015), “Making a difference: an interview with Arend Lijphart”, Z Vgl Polit Wiss (2015) 9:83–96

Bogaards, M. (2017), “Comparative Political Regimes: Consensus and Majoritarian Democracy”, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics

Borisyuk, G., C. Rallings, M. Thrasher, R. Johnston (2010), “A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case”, Electoral Studies, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/248414938_A_method_for_measuring_and_decomposing_electoral_bias_for_the_three-party_case_illustrated_by_the_British_case

Borisyuk, G., C. Rallings, M. Thrasher, R. Johnston, C. Pattie (2015), “Going Back to the Beginning: Changing Biases in the British Electoral System”, paper presented at EPOP 2015, “not for quotation without permission”

Bormann, N.-C. (2010), “Patterns of Democracy and Its Critics”, Living Reviews in Democracy, https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/cis-dam/CIS_DAM_2015/WorkingPapers/Living_Reviews_Democracy/Bormann.pdf

Budge, I. and M.D. McDonald (undated), “Two ‘visions’, one democracy: do ‘majoritarianism’ and ‘proportionality’ simultaneously guide democratic policy-making ?”, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.542.433&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Butler, D. (2014), "The Evolution of British Electoral Studies", lecture, http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/the-evolution-of-british-electoral-studies-bydavid-butler/

Carey, J. M., & Hix, S. (2009), "The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems", Working Paper (draft, colour graphs), http://www.lse.ac.uk/government/research/resgroups/PSPE/pdf/PSPE_WP1_09.pdf

Carey, J. M., & Hix, S. (2011), "The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low-Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems", American Journal of Political Science, 55(2), 383-397, Open Source http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00495.x/full and http://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/Carey-Hix-AJPS2011.pdf

Colignatus, Th. (2000, 2005, 2011), “Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political Economy”, Samuel van Houten Genootschap, http://www.thomascool.eu/Papers/Drgtpe/Index.html

Colignatus, Th. (2001, 2014a), "Voting Theory for Democracy", Thomas Cool Consultancy & Econometrics, https://zenodo.org/record/291985

Colignatus, Th. (2005), “On the political economy of world government: a short discussion of the role of the World Economic Forum and the World Social Forum and indicating the possibility of a World Parliament”, https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/wpawuwpgt/0501002.htm

Colignatus, Th. (2007, 2011), “A Logic of Exceptions”, https://zenodo.org/record/291848

Colignatus, Th. (2009, 2015), "Elegance with Substance", https://zenodo.org/record/291974

Colignatus, Th. (2010), "Single vote multiple seats elections. Didactics of district versus proportional representation, using the examples of the United Kingdom and The Netherlands", https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22782/

Colignatus, Th. (2011), "Conquest of the Plane", https://zenodo.org/record/291972

Colignatus, Th. (2012), “Laat D66 zich opheffen”, http://thomascool.eu/SvHG/LDZO/Index.html

Colignatus, Th, (2014b), "An Economic Supreme Court", RES Newsletter no 167, October, p20-21, http://www.res.org.uk/view/art7Oct14Features.html

Colignatus, Th. (2017a), "The performance of four possible rules for selecting the Prime Minister after the Dutch Parliamentary elections of March 2017", https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77616/

Colignatus, Th. (2017b), "Two conditions for the application of Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient to voting and allocated seats", https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80297/

Colignatus, Th. (2017c), "Applying voting philosophies to Brexit data", https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/09/19/applying-voting-philosophies-to-brexit-data/

Colignatus, Th. (2017d), "The dark horse and a 2012 interview with Kenneth Arrow", https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/05/06/the-dark-horse-and-a-2012-interview-with-kenneth-arrow/

Colignatus, Th. (2017e), "Also Scotland doesn’t understand democracy", https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/06/21/also-scotland-doesnt-understand-democracy/

Colignatus, Th. (2017f), "Comparing votes and seats with cosine, sine and sign, with attention for the slope and enhanced sensitivity to disproportionality", https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81839

Colignatus, Th. (2017g), “Voting theory and the Brexit referendum question”, RES Newsletter 177, http://www.res.org.uk/view/art4Apr17Features.html

Colignatus, Th. (2017h), ‘YouGov Brexit ranking data of June 12-13 2017”, https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/09/18/yougov-brexit-ranking-data-of-june-12-13-2017/

Colignatus, Th. (2017i), “Lorenz and Gini for the French elections of 2017”, https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/07/19/lorenz-en-gini-for-the-french-elections-of-2017/

Colignatus, Th. (2017j), “The bizarre incomprehension of democracy”, https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/06/16/the-bizarre-incomprehension-of-democracy/

Colignatus, Th. (2017k), “Great Britain's June 2017 preferences on Brexit options”, RES Newsletter, October, 6-9, http://www.res.org.uk/view/art2Oct17Features.html

Colignatus, Th. (2017l), “Boekbespreking: Wimar Bolhuis, “De rekenmeesters van de politiek””, https://boycotholland.wordpress.com/2017/05/26/boekbespreking-wimar-bolhuis-de-rekenmeesters-van-de-politiek/

Colignatus, Th. (2017m), “Brexit and the weird brew of populism and district representation”, https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/06/29/brexit-and-the-weird-brew-of-populism-and-district-representation/

Colignatus, Th. (2017n), “Statistics, slope, cosine, sine, sign, significance and R-squared”, https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/2017/10/21/statistics-slope-cosine-sine-sign-significance-and-r-squared/

Curtice, J. (2009), “Neither Representative Nor Accountable: First-Past-The-Post in Britain”, p27-46 in Grofman, B. et al (2009), “Duverger's Law of Plurality Voting”, Springer

Dahl, R.A. (1956), "A preface to democratic theory", Chicago

Dahl, R.A. and C.E. Lindblom (1953, 1976), “Politics, Economics and Welfare”, Chicago

Doorenspleet, R. and H. Pellikaan (2013), “Which type of democracy performs best?”, Acta Politica, http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/52073/1/WRAP_Doorenspleet_Manuscript%20Acta%20Politica.pdf

Dumont, P. & J.-F. Caulier (2003), "The "effective number of relevant parties": How voting power improves Laakso-Taagepera's index", http://centres.fusl.ac.be/CEREC/document/2003/cerec2003_7.pdf

Dunleavy, P., T. Travers and Ch. Gilson (undated), “Guide to electoral systems”, Democratic Audit, http://www.democraticaudit.com/resources/guide-to-electoral-systems/, https://web.archive.org/web/20170606123508/http://www.democraticaudit.com/resources/guide-to-electoral-systems/

EIU (2013), “Democracy index 2012: Democracy at a standstill", Economist Intelligence Unit 14 March 2013

Fairvote Canada (2016), “Why Proportional Representation? A look at the evidence”, http://www.fairvote.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Why-PR-Review-of-Evidence-updated-version-2016-01-13.pdf

Galbraith, J. (2008), “The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too”, New York: The Free Press, http://www.predatorstate.com/

Gallagher, M. (1991), "Proportionality, disproportionality and electoral systems", Electoral Studies, 10:1, 33-51, https://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/draft/staff/michael_gallagher/ElectoralStudies1991.pdf

Gallagher, M. (2007), Electoral Systems Web Site, Dublin, Trinity College, http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/Staff/Michael.Gallagher/ElSystems/index.php

Gallagher, M. (2017), "Election indices dataset", accessed at 2017-07-31, http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/ElectionIndices.pdf

Ganghof. S. (2014), “Four Visions of Democracy. Powell’s Elections as Instruments of Democracy, And Beyond”, Political Studies Review, https://www.uni-potsdam.de/fileadmin01/projects/vergleichende-politikwissenschaft/Literatur/four_visions.pdf

Golder, M., & Stramski, J. (2010), “Ideological congruence and electoral institutions”, American Journal of Political Science, 54(1), 90-106

Grofman, B. (2016), “Perspectives on the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems”, article in the “Annual review of political science”, June, 19:27.1-27.18, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/298429031_Perspectives_on_the_Comparative_Study_of_Electoral_Systems

Gunitsky, S. (2015), “How do you measure ‘democracy’?”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/06/23/how-do-you-measure-democracy/

Haar, E. van de (2015), “CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: Dutch (economic) policy-making”, Contemporary Social Science, Volume 10, 2015 - Issue 2, http://rsa.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/21582041.2015.1052540

Htun, M. and G. B. Powell jr. (eds) (2013), “Political science, electoral rules and democratic governance. Report of the Taskforce”, APSA, http://www.apsanet.org/electoralrules

Htun, M. et al. (2013), “Between science and engineering: Reflections on the APSA presidential task force on political science, electoral rules, and democratic governance”, Perspectives on politics, 808-840, https://liberalarts.utexas.edu/government/_files/moser-web/PoPSept2013.pdf

Kam, Ch. (2015), "Electoral Reform… some logic please!", https://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2015/10/20/electoral-reform/ or https://web.archive.org/web/20170704003235/https://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2015/10/20/electoral-reform/

Kam, Ch. (2016a), "Representation, Accountability and Electoral Systems", contribution to the Canadian Study of Parliament Group, https://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2016/06/28/representation-accountability-and-electoral-systems/ or https://web.archive.org/web/20170613185602/https://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2016/06/28/representation-accountability-and-electoral-systems/

Kam, Ch. (2016b), "Proportional Representation cures cancer & wipes out poverty…", https://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2016/10/09/proportional-representation-cures-cancer-wipes-out-poverty/ or https://web.archive.org/web/20170606073316/http://blogs.ubc.ca/unparliamentary/2016/10/09/proportional-representation-cures-cancer-wipes-out-poverty/

Kim. H., G.B. Powell, R.C. Fording (2010), “Electoral Systems, Party Systems, and Ideological Representation”, Comparative politics https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258446225

Kline, R. (2009), "How we count counts: The empirical effects of using coalitional potential to measure the effective number of parties", Electoral Studies 28 (2009) 261–269, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379409000067

Laakso, M. (1980), "Electoral Justice as a criterion for different systems of proportional representation", Scandinavian Political Studies, Bind 3 (New Series) (1980) 3, https://tidsskrift.dk/scandinavian_political_studies/article/view/32355/30159

Labbé St-Vincent, S., A. Blais, J.-B. Pilet (2015), “The Electoral Sweet Spot in the Lab”, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316688959_The_Electoral_Sweet_Spot_in_the_Lab

Libertad y Desarrollo (2013), “Reform of the Binominal System: The Importance of the Majority Approach”, Public Issues Nr 1,118, http://lyd.org/other/files_mf/pi1118.pdf

Linz, J. (1990), “The perils of presidentialism”. Journal of Democracy1 (1): 51–69

Lundell, K. (2012), "Disproportionality and Party System Fragmentation: Does Assembly Size Matter?", OJPS, Vol.2 No.1, April 2012, http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=18804

Lupu, N., L. Stelios, Z. Warner (2017), “A New Measure of Congruence: The Earth Mover’s Distance”, Political Analysis, vol. 25:95–113, http://www.noamlupu.com/EMD.pdf

McDonald, M.D. (2006), “Policy Consequences of SMD versus PR, A Survey”, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242122433_Policy_Consequences_of_SMD_versus_PR_A_Survey

Mueller, D. (1989), “Public Choice II”, CUP

Munck, G.L., J. Verkuilen (2002), "Conceptualizing and measuring democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices". Comparative Political Studies, Sage Publications, 35 (1): 5–34

Raabe, J. and E. Linhart (2017), “Which electoral systems succeed at providing proportionality and concentration? Promising designs and risky tools”, EPSR, january 17. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/div-classtitlewhich-electoral-systems-succeed-at-providing-proportionality-and-concentration-promising-designs-and-risky-toolsdiv/35267260CB6F4412CECF8915AA32DABE Version (2016), Paper prepared for the 2016 ECPR General Conference, Prague, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/307994945_Which_electoral_systems_succeed_at_providing_proportionality_and_concentration_An_investigation_of_promising_mixed_designs_and_risky_tools

Pearl, J. (2000), “Causality”, Cambridge

Powell, G.B. (2008), “Changing Party System Polarization, Election Rules and Ideological Congruence”, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242075375_Changing_Party_System_Polarization_Election_Rules_and_Ideological_Congruence

Powerl, G.B. (2012, 2013), “Representation in Context: Election Laws and Ideological Congruence Between Citizens and Governments”, presidential address APSA, Perspectives on Politics, Published online: 01 March 2013, pp. 9-21

Rallings, C., M. Thrasher and G. Stoker (2000), “Proportional representation and local government. Lessons from Europe”, report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/electoral-reform-local-government-lessons-rest-europe

Rae, D.W. (1995), “Using District Magnitude to Regulate Political Party Competition”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 9, No. 1 (Winter, 1995), pp. 65-75, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138355

Reynolds, A., B. Reilly and A. Ellis et al. (eds) (2005), “Electoral System Design: The New International IDEA Handbook”, IDEA, https://www.idea.int/

Riera. P., J. R. Montero (2017), “Attempts to Reform the Electoral System in Spain: The Role of Experts”, Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy, 16(3): 367-376

Robson, A. (2007), " Voting Power in the Australian Senate: 1901-2004", Working Paper No. 480, the Australian National University, School of Economics, https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/ECON/wp480.pdf

Roest, A. van der (2017), "Vastgeroest. Een Chinese opgave", Euclides 92 / 7, p49

Schendelen, M.P.C.M. van (1985), "Consociational Democracy: The Views of Arend Lijphart and Collected Criticisms", Political Science Reviewer, Fall, 1985 - Vol. 15, No. 1, p143-183, https://isistatic.org/journal-archive/pr/15_01/schendelen.pdf

Steinsaltz, D. (2011), “The Value of Nothing: A Review of The Quants”, http://www.ams.org/notices/201105/rtx110500699p.pdf

Tullock, G. (2008), "Public Choice", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_P000240&q=rational%20choice&topicid=&result_number=10

Vakmann, K. (2014), “Mechanical Effects of Electoral Systems on Proportionality and Parliament Fragmentation”, Master’s thesis, University of Tartu, available at the parliament of Estonia, https://www.riigikogu.ee/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Vakmann.pdf