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ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ИНДИКАТОРОВ ФИНАНСОВОЙ СИСТЕМЫ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ

Zaruk, Natalia and Tikhonova, Anna and Sergeev, Artur (2017): ЭКОНОМЕТРИЧЕСКОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ИНДИКАТОРОВ ФИНАНСОВОЙ СИСТЕМЫ КАК ИНСТРУМЕНТ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ. Published in: Finance and credit , Vol. 33, No. 23 (2017): pp. 1956-1967.

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Abstract

Subject.World globalization, the integration of the international economic system, the active development of transnational corporations, which are the distinguishing feature of the global economy of the XXI century, are subjected to national financial system to risks of different quality, and the Russian Federation in this aspect are no exception.In addition, transformation of the economy accelerates significantly in the last decade, which is inevitably accompanied by financial crises.Inthisconnectionespecially important is the "point" plan of the financial system, based on econometric modeling of its indicators and are therefore more flexible and adaptive. PurposeofArticle.The purpose of research is the construction of an econometric model to determine the specific values of the financial system indicators for the rationalization of Russian fiscal policy. Methodology.In this work, we used the classic techniques of analysis of statistical science and econometrics: correlation analysis, regression analysis, time series analysis. Using comparative methods, we reviewed scientific approaches to the treatment of financial system indicators. Results. We defined the essence, the concept of indicators of the financial system, by which we called the credit expansion of commercial banks and prices in the asset market. Econometric model, which allows to determine the specific values of indicators of the financial system for the rationalization of Russia's financial policy, has been determined. The coefficient of determination of the constructed model was 54.56% (r = 0.74). This indicates a high proportion of asset price variations caused by variation of loans economy. The statistical accuracy of the model was proved using Student's test, Fisher test and Lyuinga – Boxing test. In the final part of the study, suggestions are made for getting out of the stagflation trap and stimulating the growth of the Russian economy. Field of Application.The results of the research can be used for financial planning and forecasting, as well as in determining priority directions of developmentof the Russian financial system. Conclusions.We concluded that an increase in lending, the Russian economy will have a real chance of accelerating social and economic development.

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