Aktas, Erkan and Özenç, Çiğdem and Arıca, Feyza (2010): The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics.
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This study explores the impact of fluctuations in oil prices on Turkey's economy. The data used in this study covers the years from 1991 to 2008. Macro-economic variables used in this study are GNP, inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports. VAR model is used in estimating the macro-economic impact of oil prices. Based on the results of the analysis conducted, a meaningful relationship of oil prices with inflation, unemployment and the ratio of exports to imports is estimated. However, it is observed that a rise in oil prices do not have any substantial impact on macro-economic variables. While an inverse relationship of oil prices with the ratio of exports to imports and unemployment is estimated, a direct relationship between oil prices and inflation emerged. The results of impulse-response analysis shows that the responses of macro-economic variables to oil price shocks become stable only after one year.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics|
|Keywords:||Oil prices, VAR, Macroeconomics, Turkey|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models ; Multiple Variables > C32 - Time-Series Models ; Dynamic Quantile Regressions ; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models ; Diffusion Processes ; State Space Models
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
|Depositing User:||Erkan AKTAS|
|Date Deposited:||15. Feb 2011 20:17|
|Last Modified:||26. Apr 2015 02:01|
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