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Дефицит бюджета и структурный профицит ликвидности как ключевые факторы развития финансового сектора России в 2018-2020 годах

Andreyev, Mikhail (2018): Дефицит бюджета и структурный профицит ликвидности как ключевые факторы развития финансового сектора России в 2018-2020 годах.

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Abstract

In our opinion, the key problems that will determine the parameters of the financial sector in the coming years are the budget deficit and growth of the monetary base. Growth of the monetary base is a direct consequence of the budget deficit. The government can withdraw liquidity through the sale of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia, through the borrowing in the domestic money market by the Ministry of Finance or through the spending of the Russian National Wealth Fund with the simultaneous sale of these funds in the foreign exchange market. According to scenarios concerned, the development of the financial sector will depend on how the government will restrain the growth of the monetary base and how fast the government will reduce the budget deficit.

We present a forecast for the Russian financial sector for 2018-2020. The forecast includes quarter series for the sector of commercial banks, the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance. We used the financial balances methodology. The main external variables of the forecast were the macroeconomic variables of socio-economic development forecast, published by the Ministry of Economic Development, as well as the budget deficit parameters. In this regard, our forecast gives an answer to the question “under what parameters of financial policy can the socio-economic forecast be realized?”

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