Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Output Gap Estimation for Inflation Forecasting: The Case of the Philippines

Bagsic, Cristeta and Paul, McNelis (2007): Output Gap Estimation for Inflation Forecasting: The Case of the Philippines. Published in: BSP Working Paper Series No. 2007-01 (August 2007): pp. 1-32.

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Abstract

This paper examines alternative estimation models for obtaining output gap measures for the Philippines. These measures are combined with the rates of growth of broad money, nominal wages and oil prices for forecasting inflation. We find that models which combine these leading indicators in a nonlinear way out-perform other linear combinations of these variables for out-of-sample forecasting performance.

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