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Özel Sektör Tasarruflarında Mali Politika Etkileri

Erdogdu, Oya Safinaz (2007): Özel Sektör Tasarruflarında Mali Politika Etkileri.

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The economics literature argues that once Ricardian hypothesis is valid fiscal policy do not have any real impact on macroeconomy via consumption decisions. However, it has beeen argued by many studies on fiscal dominance that there are exceptions to the validity of Ricardian Equivalence theorem and under certain conditions, fiscal policy can effect monetary policy and macroeconomic variables like inflation through consumption decisions. Using threshold vector aurotregression (TVAR) methodology, this study analyzes the possible non linear fiscal impact of government debt on consumption / saving decisions of economic agents. The empirical analysis of government debt, interest rate and private savings of Turkey documents that fiscal policy effects on private agents saving behavior and monetary policy variable follows a non linear pattern. Hence, the effects of interest rate on saving decisions of agents differ according to a threshold level of debt. The impulse response analysis indicates that under high (low) debt regime, higher interest rate leads to higher (lower) consumption levels. This result supports the argument on the requirement for joint commitment of fiscal and monetary policies to control inflation. The empirical results also notes the positive impact of decreasing government debt on private savings under every state, but also notes this this effect is persistent under low debt regime.

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