La mesure du chômage au Maroc : rien n’est moins sûr

Y. Tamsamani, Yasser (2018): La mesure du chômage au Maroc : rien n’est moins sûr.

Abstract

The Moroccan unemployment figures tell a tale of a statistical misery that hides another one's but more real and painful. First, the purpose of this essay is to highlight the fact that these figures are a product of preemptive arbitrations, in terms of definition and calculation methodology, aimed at putting in perspective their scope and adeptness to cover the subject of unemployment and its multitude of facets. Subsequently, the essay surmises the necessity to strengthen unemployment statistical information with the introduction of the unemployment halo calculation, and its systematic communication, as well as standard simulations of unemployment rates targeted for higher activity levels. The unemployment halo is estimated here at 5.2-11.7 Million people, according to statistical analysis geared towards stay at home wives, and the unemployment rate rises to 30 % for a similar activity ratio that the developed countries. Finally, this essay contends for the right of access to raw survey information, well before the definition, and application, of unemployment criteria in order to allow complementary measures emanating from alternative definitions to emerge.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: Measuring unemployment in Morocco: a dubious approach
• Language: French
• Keywords: Survey Data, Measuring Unemployment, Unemployment Halo, Morocco
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C83 - Survey Methods ; Sampling Methods; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers > J64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O55 - Africa

References

Cochard M., G. Cornilleau et É. Heyer. (2010). Les marchés du travail dans la crise. REVUE DE L’OFCE(113), 261-282. Division de l'emploi, Haut commissariat au Plan. (2013, mai-juin). Dimension panel de l'enqête nationale sur l'emploi. Les Cahiers du plan(44).

Durier, S. L., Gonzalez, I. Macario-Rat, H. Thélot. (2007, Novembre). Résultats de l’enquête Emploi: Le chômage baisse depuis début 2006. INSEE PREMIÈRE(1164).

Freund C., B. Rijkers. (2014). Episodes of unemployment reduction in rich, middle-income and transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics(42), 907–923.

Haut Commissariat au Plan. (2015 (a)). Situation du marché du travail de l'année 2015. Enquête Nationale sur l'Emploi. Haut Commissariat au Plan. (2015 (b)). Résultats de l’enquête de conjoncture auprès des ménages.

Haut Commissariat au Plan. (2017). Principaux enseignements sur la qualité de l’emploi en 2016. Récupéré sur https://www.hcp.ma/Principaux-enseignements-sur-la-qualite-de-l-emploi-en-2016_a1879.html

Haut Commissariat au Plan et Banque Mondiale. (2017). Le marché du travail au Maroc : défis et opportunités. Récupéré sur https://www.hcp.ma/Le-marche-du-travail-au-Maroc-Defis-et-opportunites_a2054.html

Helpman E., O. Itshkoki. (2010.). Labour market rigidities. Trade and Unemployment. Review of Economic Studies(77), 1100–1137.

Merllié, D. (1988). Que mesure la statistique ? In: Actes de la recherche en sciences sociales. Penser la politique, 73(2).

Stephens M. J. (2002). Worker displacement and the added worker effect. Journal of Labor Economics, 20(3), 504-536.

Tamsamani, Y. Y. (2015). La croissance économique au Maroc : résilience ou fragilité ? (PUM, Éd.) Questions d'Economie Marocaine 2014.