Abugamea, Gaber (2016): اثر التجارة الخارجية على النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين: 1995 -2012. Published in: An-Najah University Journal for Research-B (Humanities) , Vol. B, No. 30(9) (30 September 2016): pp. 1847-1876.
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Abstract
تظهر تجربة التجارة الخارجية الفلسطينية خلال العقدين الماضين نموا مضطردا في الواردات خاصة في أعقاب فترات شهدت كبتا أو نقصا حادا فيها و ذلك في الوقت الذي بدأت فيه الصادرات بالنمو في السنوات الأخيرة. و هذه الدراسة تستقصي أثر النمو في مكوني التجارة الخارجية الواردات و الصادرات السلعية و الكلية على كل من النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية باستخدام التحليل القياسي الذي يربط بين الواردات و الصادرات و النشاط الاقتصادي ممثلاً بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي تارة، و مؤشر التنمية ممثلا بالناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد تارة اخرى، كما و تفحص طبيعة السببية بين كل من الواردات و الصادرات وكل من النمو الاقتصادي و مؤشر التنمية الدخل الفردي. بشكل رئيس تظهر الدراسة أثرا معنويا معتدلا للنمو في الواردات على النمو في النشاط الاقتصادي بينما لا يؤثر النمو في الصادرات معنويا على النشاط الاقتصاد و إن كان ايجابياً. كما و تظهر أثرا ايجابيا معنويا للواردات على الناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد. و باعتبار التجارة الخارجية الكلية المشتملة على التجارة الخدمية فإنه يظهر أداءاً أفضل للتجارة الخارجية في التأثير على النمو الاقتصادي، و كذلك تأثيرا اكبر على الناتج المحلي الاجمالي للفرد. و بشكل بارز يظهر فحص جرانجر للسببية وجود سببية في اتجاه واحد من الواردات الكلية على النمو الاقتصادي، و من الدخل الفردي على الواردات الكلية. و هذه الدراسة توصي بعدد من السياسات لتوجيه التجارة الخارجية بما يعزز و يخدم النمو في النشاط الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين. الكلمات المفتاحية: الواردات و الصادرات، النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية، طريقة المربعات الصغرى، فحص السببية
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | اثر التجارة الخارجية على النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية في فلسطين: 1995 -2012 |
English Title: | The Impact of External trade on Economic Growth and development in Palestine: 1995-2012 |
Language: | Arabic |
Keywords: | الواردات و الصادرات، النمو الاقتصادي و التنمية، طريقة المربعات الصغرى، فحص السببية |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade |
Item ID: | 89745 |
Depositing User: | Dr Gaber Abugamea |
Date Deposited: | 28 Oct 2018 16:32 |
Last Modified: | 11 Dec 2024 07:38 |
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URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/89745 |