Asymmetries in the Responses of Regional Job Flows to Oil Price Shocks

Karaki, Mohamad (2017): Asymmetries in the Responses of Regional Job Flows to Oil Price Shocks. Published in: Economic Inquiry , Vol. 3, No. 56 (1 July 2018): pp. 1827-1845.

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of oil price innovations on manufacturing job flows across U.S states. First, I estimate a nonlinear structural equation model and compute impulse response functions by Monte Carlo integration. I find asymmetries in the responses of job flows to positive and negative oil price innovations. Yet, these asymmetries do not pass a test of symmetry on the impulse responses, especially after accounting for data mining. Third, I use a test for the absence of job reallocation to evaluate whether an unexpected increase in the real price of oil price triggers an important change in job reallocation. I find that oil price shocks have limited regional allocative effects.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: regional business cycles, job flows, oil prices.
• Subjects: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy > E24 - Employment ; Unemployment ; Wages ; Intergenerational Income Distribution ; Aggregate Human Capital ; Aggregate Labor Productivity; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q4 - Energy > Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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