A General Assessment of Climate Change - Loss of Agricultural Productivity in Indonesia

RESTU ANANDA, RIMA and Widodo, Tri (2019): A General Assessment of Climate Change - Loss of Agricultural Productivity in Indonesia.

Abstract

The changes of frequency and complexity of extreme climate events and in the variability of weather patterns will have significant impacts for stability of agricultural system. Climate change and variability are phenomena of climate anomalies that are of great concern, especially due to the agricultural sector. In Indonesia, in 30 years there have been several extreme conditions which are marked by the frequency of increasingly high climate variability. This paper investigate the impact of climate change on change of value GDP, change of wealth, Government Household Demand, Private Household Demand and real wage in Indonesia by using the dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. This study used GTAP 9 with base year 2011. The GTAP database covers 140 regional units and 57 sectors that aggregated into eleven regions and eight sectors. There are three scenarios of climate change used in this paper that were the highest, medium and the lowest. The results shows that both GDP and wealth have a negative impact due to the scenarios. The greater of climate change is, the greater the decrease of values of GDP, Wealth, Market Price, Government Household Demand, Private Household Demand towards the scenarios of climate change in Indonesia are. The results indicate an urgent need to mainstream adaption strategies to lessen the negative impacts of any climate change-induced loss of agricultural productivity in Indonesia.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate change, agricultural productivity, impact assessment, Indonesia, GTAP
• Subjects: O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O44 - Environment and Growth; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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