Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Modeling and forecasting population in Bangladesh: a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Modeling and forecasting population in Bangladesh: a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

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Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Bangladesh from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Bangladesh annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for simplicity purposes, the researcher has assumed it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (4, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is very stable and quite reliable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Bangladesh will continue to sharply rise in the next three decades. In order to deal with the threats posed by a large population, 3 policy recommendations have been suggested.

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