Can Algeria be the first African country to outsmart the Malthusian population trap? Insights from the ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Can Algeria be the first African country to outsmart the Malthusian population trap? Insights from the ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Algeria from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Algeria annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (4, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are integrated of order zero. The results of the study reveal that total population in Algeria will continue to rise gradually in the next three decades and in 2050 Algeria’s total population will be approximately 62 million people. In order to outsmart the Malthusian population trap, 4 policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of Algeria.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Algeria; Forecasting; Population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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