Forecasting total population in Yemen using Box-Jenkins ARIMA models

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Forecasting total population in Yemen using Box-Jenkins ARIMA models.

Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Yemen from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Yemen annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for simplicity purposes, the researcher has assumed it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (10, 2, 0) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study reveal that total population in Yemen will continue to rise sharply in the next three decades and in 2050 Yemen’s total population will be approximately 52 million people. In order to benefit from an increase in total population in Yemen, 4 policy recommendations have been suggested for consideration by policy makers in Yemen.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; population; Yemen
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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