Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Eritrea from 1960 to 2011, we model and forecast total population over the next 39 years using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Eritrea annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 1) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable. The results of the study establishes that total population in Eritrea will gradually rise in the next 39 years and in 2050 Eritrea’s total population will be approximately 7.6 million people. In order to take advantage of the expected increase in total population in Eritrea, 3 policy recommendations have been proposed.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Eritrea; forecasting; population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

References

[1] Asteriou, D. & Hall, S. G. (2007). Applied Econometrics: a modern approach, Revised Edition, Palgrave MacMillan, New York.

[2] Australian Government (2017). DFAT Country Information Report, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Government.

[3] Ayele, A. W & Zewdie, M. A (2017). Modeling and forecasting Ethiopian human population size and its pattern, International Journal of Social Sciences, Arts and Humanities, 4 (3): 71 – 82.

[4] Beg, A. B. M. R. A & Islam, M. R (2016). Forecasting and modeling population growth of Bangladesh, American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 6 (4): 190 – 195.

[5] Dominic, A., Oluwatoyin, M. A., & Fagbeminiyi, F. F (2016). The determinants of population growth in Nigeria: a co-integration approach, The International Journal of Humanities and Social Studies, 4 (11): 38 – 44.

[6] Du Preez, J. & Witt, S. F. (2003). Univariate and multivariate time series forecasting: An application to tourism demand, International Journal of Forecasting, 19: 435 – 451.

[7] Goh, C. & Law, R. (2002). Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic non-stationary seasonality and intervention, Tourism Management, 23: 499 – 510.

[8] Government of Eritrea (1997). Country Profiles, Government of Eritrea.

[9] Nyoni, T (2018). Modeling and Forecasting Naira / USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: a Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach, University of Munich Library – Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper No. 88622.

[10] Nyoni, T (2018). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.

[11] Nyoni, T. (2018). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, Munich University Library – Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper No. 87737.

[12] Song, H., Witt, S. F. & Jensen, T. C. (2003b). Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models, International Journal of Forecasting, 19: 123 – 141.

[13] Tartiyus, E. H., Dauda, T. M., & Peter, A (2015). Impact of population growth on economic growth in Nigeria, IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS), 20 (4): 115 – 123.

[14] Todaro, M & Smith, S (2006). Economic Development, 9th Edition, Vrinda Publications, New Delhi.

[15] UN (2017). World Population Prospects, Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division, UN.

[16] United Nations (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/241.

[17] United States Department of State (2017). Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 2017, Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Labour, USDS.

[18] Zakria, M & Muhammad, F (2009). Forecasting the population of Pakistan using ARIMA models, Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 46 (3): 214 – 223.