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Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Where is Eritrea going in terms of population growth? Insights from the ARIMA approach.

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Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Eritrea from 1960 to 2011, we model and forecast total population over the next 39 years using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Eritrea annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 1) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable. The results of the study establishes that total population in Eritrea will gradually rise in the next 39 years and in 2050 Eritrea’s total population will be approximately 7.6 million people. In order to take advantage of the expected increase in total population in Eritrea, 3 policy recommendations have been proposed.

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