NYONI, THABANI (2019): Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.
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Abstract
Employing annual time series data on total population in Brazil from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Brazil annual total population is non-stationary in all levels; for simplicity purposes, the study has assumed that the POP series is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (6, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are stationary. The results of the study reveal that total population in Brazil will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Brazil’s total population will be approximately 256 million people. Four policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of Brazil.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
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Original Title: | Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Brazil; forecasting; population |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics |
Item ID: | 92437 |
Depositing User: | MR. THABANI NYONI |
Date Deposited: | 01 Mar 2019 18:53 |
Last Modified: | 14 Oct 2019 16:30 |
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URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/92437 |