Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Forecasting the population of Brazil using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

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Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Brazil from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Brazil annual total population is non-stationary in all levels; for simplicity purposes, the study has assumed that the POP series is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (6, 2, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are stationary. The results of the study reveal that total population in Brazil will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Brazil’s total population will be approximately 256 million people. Four policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of Brazil.

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