What will be China's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): What will be China's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in China from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that China annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable although its residuals are non-stationary. The results of the study reveal that total population in China will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 China’s total population will be approximately 1.6 billion people. Three policy recommendations have been suggested for consideration by the Chinese government.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: China; forecasting; population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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