Addressing the population question in Mexico: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Addressing the population question in Mexico: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Mexico from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Mexico annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are stationary. The results of the study show that total population in Mexico will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Mexico’s total population will be approximately 180 million people. Three policy prescriptions have been proposed for consideration by the government of Mexico.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting, Mexico, population
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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