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Somalia population dynamics versus the Malthusian population trap: What does the ARIMA approach tell us?

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Somalia population dynamics versus the Malthusian population trap: What does the ARIMA approach tell us?

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Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Somalia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Somalia annual total population is basically I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (7, 2, 1) model as the most parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is really stable and that its residuals are I (0). The results of the study reveal that total population in Somalia will continue to rise sharply in the next three decades and in 2050 Somalia’s total population will be approximately 28 million people. In order to circumvent the chances of being a victim of the Malthusian population trap, 4 policy recommendations have been put forward for consideration by the government of Somalia.

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