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Modeling and forecasting remittances in Bangladesh using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology

NYONI, THABANI (2019): Modeling and forecasting remittances in Bangladesh using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology.

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Abstract

This paper uses annual time series data on remittances into Bangladesh from 1976 to 2017, to model and forecast remittances using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that REM is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model for predicting remittances in Bangladesh. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented parsimonious model is stable and acceptable for predicting remittances in Bangladesh. The results of the study apparently show that remittances inflows into Bangladesh are on a downwards trajectory. The paper suggests the need for strengthening Bangladesh’s emigration policy in order to improve remittances inflows into Bangladesh.

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