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Stabilité du Currency Board et fuite des capitaux. Modèle théorique et application empirique au cas de Djibouti

Aman, Moustapha and Nenovsky, Nikolay (2015): Stabilité du Currency Board et fuite des capitaux. Modèle théorique et application empirique au cas de Djibouti.

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Abstract

The article explores the relationships between capital flight, the monetary regime instability and the general institutional stability of a country, with an empirical application to Djibouti. Are constructed variables for the capital flight, indicator for the instability of Currency Board and for the stability of institutional settings. This allows in a second time to test statistically and econometrically the impact of capital flight on Currency Board stability. The results show that the Currency Board in the case of Djibouti is entirely determined by capital movements (legal and illegal), unlike other Currency Boards where trade flows play a substantial role. The institutional framework and corrupt practices are also critical to understand the Djibouti monetary equilibrium and the perpetuation of the Currency Board in the presence of unofficial practices.

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