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What will be Botswana's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach

NYONI, THABANI (2019): What will be Botswana's population in 2050? Evidence from the Box-Jenkins approach.

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Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Botswana from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Botswana annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for simplicity purposes, the researcher has assumed it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Botswana will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Botswana’s total population will be approximately 3 665 140 people. In order to benefit from an increase in total population in Botswana, 3 policy recommendations have been suggested.

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