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Can Afghanistan be a victim of the Malthusian population trap? what does the ARIMA approach tell us?

NYONI, THABANI and MUTONGI, CHIPO (2019): Can Afghanistan be a victim of the Malthusian population trap? what does the ARIMA approach tell us?

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Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Afghanistan from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Afghanistan annual total population is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and that its residuals are I (0). The results of the study reveal that total population in Afghanistan will continue to rise gradually in the next three decades and in 2050 Afghanistan’s total population will be approximately 51 million people. In order to circumvent the chances of being a victim of the Malthusian population trap, 4 policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of Afghanistan.

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