Prediction of total population in Togo using ARIMA models

NYONI, THABANI and MUTONGI, CHIPO (2019): Prediction of total population in Togo using ARIMA models.

Abstract

Using annual time series data on total population in Togo from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Togo annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for simplicity purposes, the researcher has assumed it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 2, 0) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is stable. The results of the study reveal that total population in Togo will continue to rise in the next three decades and in 2050 Togo’s total population will be approximately 14.2 million people. In order to benefit from an increase in total population in Togo, 3 policy recommendations have been suggested for consider by the government of Togo.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Forecasting; population; Togo
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth; R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration ; Regional Labor Markets ; Population ; Neighborhood Characteristics

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