Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Co-movement in tourist arrivals in the Caribbean

Lorde, Troy and Moore, Winston (2006): Co-movement in tourist arrivals in the Caribbean. Published in: Tourism Economics , Vol. 14, No. 3 (2008): pp. 631-643.

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Although the Caribbean is often seen as a homogenous group of tourist destinations, this is not the case. Countries across the region differ in terms of their key source markets, infrastructural development of their industry and the sources of economic shocks. This paper investigates, through the use of univariate and multivariate time series techniques and monthly data from 1977 to 2002, whether tourist arrivals to the Caribbean have been converging and if there is stable relationship between the tourist cycles in each country. If arrivals to the Caribbean are converging over time, differences between countries, in terms of tourism penetration, should decline. The empirical results presented in the paper suggest that there is no convergence in levels, but in the rates of growth. There also exists a stable long run relationship between the rates of growth of tourist arrivals to various Caribbean countries.

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