Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade and Malikane, Christopher (2017): An estimated financial accelerator model for small-open African economies.
PDF
MPRA_paper_95977.pdf Download (167kB) |
Abstract
The paper formulates and estimates an open economy monetary DSGE model to investigate the quantitative significance of the financial accelerator mechanism in business cycle fluctuations for African countries. We employ the Bayesian technique to evaluate the statistical importance of the financial accelerator channel in African countries. We compare the model with financial accelerator model to the model without financial accelerator. The estimation shows that financial accelerator channels are empirically important in African economies. The marginal likelihood results clearly favour the model with financial accelerator in African economies. Moreover, the results show that the financial accelerator channel dampens the expansionary effects of exchange rate depreciation in African economies. African countries should deepen their domestic debt markets to minimize their vulnerability to exchange rate shocks.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | An estimated financial accelerator model for small-open African economies |
English Title: | An estimated financial accelerator model for small-open African economies |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Financial accelerator, Bayesian technique, Marginal likelihood, Business cycle. |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics |
Item ID: | 95977 |
Depositing User: | Dr Mutiu Gbade Rasaki |
Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2019 16:15 |
Last Modified: | 26 Sep 2019 18:48 |
References: | References Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., & Banerjee, A. (2000). Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy with Credit Constraints. European Economic Review, 45, 1121-1150. Aghion, P., Bacchetta, P., & Banerjee, A. (2004). A Corporate Balance-Sheet Approach to Currency Crises. Journal of Economic Theory, 119, 6-30. Aguiar, M. (2005). Investment, Devaluation, and Foreign Currency Exposure: The Case of Mexico. Journal of Development Economics, 78, 95-113. Amadou, N. R. S. (2013). First Borrow: A Growing Number of Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are Tapping International Capital Markets. Finance and Development, 52-54. Bebczuk, R., Galindo, A., & Panizza, U. (2006). An Evaluation of Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper(582). Benavente, J. S., Johnson, C. A., & Morande, F. G. (2003). Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate Depreciations: A Firm-level Analysis for Chile. Emerging Markets Review, 4, 397-416. Berganza, J. C., Chang, R., & Herero, A. G. (2004). Balance Sheet Effects and the Country Risk Premium: An Empirical Investigation. Review of World Economics, 140(4), 592-612. Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 14-31. Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. In J. B. Taylor and M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (Vol. 1, pp. 1341-1393): Elsevier Science B. V. Bleakley, H., & Cowan, K. (2008). Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado about Nothing. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), 612-626. Bonomo, M., Martins, B., & Pinto, R. (2003). Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effects in Brazil: A Firm Level Analysis. Emerging Markets Review, 4, 368-396. Bordo, M. D., Meissner, M., & Stuckler, D. (2010). Foreign Currency Debt, Financial Crises and Economic Growth: A Long-Run View. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 642-665. Carlstrom, C. T., & Fuerst, T. S. (1996). Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper(9602). Carranza, L. J., Cayo, J. M., & Galdon-Sanchez, J. E. (2003). Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Performance in Peru: A Firm Level Analysis. Emerging Markets Review, 4, 472-496. Castelnuovo, E. (2012). Estimating the Evolution of Money's Role in the US Monetary Business Cycle. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(1), 23-52. Céspedes, L. F. (2005). Financial Frictions and Real Devaluations. Central Bank of Chile Working Paper(318). Céspedes, L. F., Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2004). Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy. The American Economic Review, 94(4), 1183-1193. Choi, W. G., & Cook, D. (2004). Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel. Journal of International Economics, 64, 247-275. Christensen, I., & Dib, A. (2008). The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model. Review of Economic Dynamics, 11, 155-178. Chue, T. K., & Cook, D. (2008). Sudden Stops and Liability Dollarization: Evidence from Asia's Financial Intermediaries. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 16(436-452). Echeverry, J. C., Fergusson, R. S., & Aguilar, C. (2003). "Dollar" Debt in Colombian Firms: Are Sinners Punished During Devaluations? Emerging Markets Review, 4, 417-449. Elekdağ, S., Justiniano, A., & Tchakarov, I. (2006). An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator. IMF Staff Paper, 53(2), 219-241. Elekdağ, S., & Tchakarov, I. (2007). Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31, 3986-4015. Elkhafif, M. (2002). Exchange Rate Policy and Currency Substitution: The Case of Africa's Emerging Economies. African Development Bank Economic Research Papers(71). Forbes, K. J. (2002). How Do Large Depreciation Affect Firm Performance. IMF Staff Paper, 49(Special Issue), 214-238. Galí, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44, 195-222. Galí, J., Gertler, M., & López-Salido (2001). European Inflation Dynamics. European Economic Review, 45, 1237-1270. García, C. J., & González, W. D. (2013). Exchange Rate Intervention in Small Open Economies: The Role of Risk Premium and Commodity Price Shocks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25(424-447). Jeane, O., & Zettlemeyer, J. (2002). "Original Sin", Balance Sheet Crises and the Roles of International Lending. Paper Presented at the Currency and Maturity Matchmaking: Redeeming Debt from Original sin, Washington. Koop, G. (2007). Bayesian Econometrics: Cambridge University Press. Krugman, P. (1999). Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem and Financial Crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459.472. McCallum, B. T., & Nelson, E. (2000). Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16(4), 74-91. Muhanji, S., & Ojah, K. (2011). External shocks and Persistence of External Debt in Open Vulnerable Economies: The Case of Africa. Economic Modelling, 28, 1615-1628. Mulder, C., Perrelli, R., & Rocha, M. D. (2012). External Vulnerability, Balance Sheet Effects, and the Institutional Framework: Lessons from Asian Crisis. International Review of Economics and Finance, 21(16-28). Pratap, S. & Urrutia, C. (2003). Firm dynamics, Investment and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994. Journal of Development Economics, 74, 535-563. Rasaki, M. G. & Malikane, C. (2015). Macroeconomic Shocks and Fluctuations in African Economies. Economic Systems, 39, 675-696. Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (2002). Openness, Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 947-981. Smets, F., & Wouters, R. (2007). Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach. The American Economic Review, 97(3), 586-606. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus Policy Rule in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/95977 |