El Efecto de la Mediterraneidad sobre el Flujo Comercial Internacional: Evidencia Empírica Internacional y para América del Sur (1990-2016)

Delgadillo Chavarria, Carlos Bruno (2019): El Efecto de la Mediterraneidad sobre el Flujo Comercial Internacional: Evidencia Empírica Internacional y para América del Sur (1990-2016).

Abstract

El objetivo del presente documento es analizar la relación entre la condición de país sin litoral y el flujo comercial internacional, considerando la importancia de la calidad institucional, la política comercial, la calidad de infraestructura y la calidad logística. Para tal propósito estimamos dos modelos estructurales de gravedad de comercio mediante el método de estimación denominado “Poisson Pseudo Maximun Likelihood”. Uno de nuestros modelos es estimado usando una muestra de datos de panel de más 130 países que son exportadores e importadores durante el periodo 1996-2016. El segundo modelo es estimado usando una muestra de 10 países importadores de América del Sur y más de 130 países exportadores durante el periodo 1996-2016. Los resultados del primer modelo sugieren que los países sin litoral por el lado exportador tienden, en promedio, a tener entre 9.5% y 32.3% menor flujo comercial en comparación a los países costeros. Asimismo, los resultados de este modelo con datos internacionales sugieren que el flujo comercial de los países sin litoral por el lado importador es 10.4% a 34.3% menor en comparación al flujo comercial de los países costeros. Los resultados del segundo modelo sugieren que el nivel de importaciones de los países de América del Sur sin litoral, Bolivia y Paraguay, es 23.58% a 45.82% menor en comparación al resto de países de América del Sur que tienen costa. También, los resultados de este segundo modelo sugieren que las importaciones de los países de América del Sur son entre 5.68% y 30.58% menores cuando los países que exportan no tienen litoral en comparación a los países exportadores que tienen costa. Por último, en ambos modelos hemos encontrado que los efectos de la condición de país sin litoral tanto por el lado exportador como por el lado importador disminuyen cuando se consideran la calidad institucional, la política comercial, la calidad de infraestructura y la calidad logística.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• English Title: The Effect of Landlocked Country Status on International Trade Flow: International and South America Empirical Evidence (1990-2016)
• Language: Spanish
• Keywords: Mediterraneidad, Comercio Internacional, Modelo Estructural de Gravedad de Comercio, Poisson Pseudo Maximun Likelihood
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade; F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F19 - Other; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development

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