The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach

Nyoni, Thabani (2019): The population question in Zimbabwe: reliable projections from the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

Employing annual time series data on total population in Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that Zimbabwe annual total population is neither I (1) nor I (2) but for the sake of simplicity,we assume it is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 2, 2) model as the best model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented model is stable andacceptable. The results of the study indicate that total population in Zimbabwe will continue to increase in the next three decades. In order to enjoy the benefits of the Ahlburg (1998) and Becker et al (1999) prophecy, 2 policy prescriptions have been put forward.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: ARIMA; forecasting; population growth; population policy; total population; Zimbabwe
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth

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