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Le syndrome hollandais en zone CEMAC: une approche par la modélisation VAR structurelle

Kuikeu, Oscar (2019): Le syndrome hollandais en zone CEMAC: une approche par la modélisation VAR structurelle.

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Abstract

what could explained the persistence on the dependence of sub-Saharan African countries toward the export of raw materials? This is the main question of this paper. In fact, we test the hypothesis of a Dutch disease occurrence in CEMAC. Globally speaking, the obtained results are significant testimony of the robustness of VAR methodology as an engine to test this kind of hypothesis. The volatility in the international price of raw materials and the real exchange rate appreciation are the main causes of the Dutch disease occurrence in CEMAC, following our results from the VAR models. To finish, also following our results, between these two factors (volatility and competitivity), in Cameroon, it is the channel of exchange rate who prevails relatively more contrary to Gabon.

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