Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica

Alarcon Gambarte, Samuel (2019): Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica. Published in: Latin American Journal of Economic Development , Vol. 32, (November 2019): pp. 57-93.


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Latin America has experienced a context of high volatility in its terms of trade during recent years. To analyze this phenomenon, a new way of modeling external prices that seeks to capture the uncertainty of the international market is provided. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and estimated with data from Bolivia. Finally, a simulation is carried out introducing an export price shock and analyzing three different scenarios: Conventional, under persistence shock and variance shock. It is analyzed the macroeconomic mechanisms of transmission in the face of external shocks and how economic agents react to changes in uncertainty.

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