Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica

Alarcon Gambarte, Samuel (2019): Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica. Published in: Latin American Journal of Economic Development , Vol. 32, (November 2019): pp. 57-93.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_97116.pdf

Download (672kB) | Preview

Abstract

Latin America has experienced a context of high volatility in its terms of trade during recent years. To analyze this phenomenon, a new way of modeling external prices that seeks to capture the uncertainty of the international market is provided. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and estimated with data from Bolivia. Finally, a simulation is carried out introducing an export price shock and analyzing three different scenarios: Conventional, under persistence shock and variance shock. It is analyzed the macroeconomic mechanisms of transmission in the face of external shocks and how economic agents react to changes in uncertainty.

Logo of the University Library LMU Munich
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the University Library LMU Munich in Germany.