Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Forecasting TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe

Nyoni, Smartson. Pumulani and Nyoni, Thabani (2019): Forecasting TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe.


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This study uses monthly time series data on TB notifications at Zengeza clinic in Chitungwiza from January 2013 to December 2018; to forecast TB notifications using the Box & Jenkins (1970) approach to univariate time series analysis. Diagnostic tests indicate that TBN is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the SARMA (2, 0, 2)(1, 0, 1)12 model, the diagnostic tests further show that this model is quite stable and hence acceptable for forecasting the TB notifications at Zengeza clinic. The selected optimal model shows that the TB notifications will decline over the out-of-sample period. The main policy recommendation emanating from this study is that there should be continued intensification of TB surveillance and control programmes in order to reduce TB incidences not only at Zengeza clinic but also in Zimbabwe at large.

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