Munich Personal RePEc Archive

A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+

Colignatus, Thomas (2019): A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_97447.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Family planning could focus on delaying the having of children, instead of (just) reducing the number of children per woman. 66% of all children are born in the mothers’ age group of 15-29. A delay of births to the age of 30+ would cause a reduction of the world population by about 0.8 billion in a direct effect. A secondary effect arises when the later born children grow up and have their delay too. There can also be a learning effect. World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100. This would cut projected emissions by some 20%. The effect seems important enough to have more research on reasons, causes and consequences of such delay. Strong delay will cause swings in the dependency ratio, which would require economic flexibility, like a rising retirement age from 65 to 70 years. Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948 stipulates the right to education. This right need not be discussed anew. It may be that education does not adequately discuss family planning though.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.