A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+

Colignatus, Thomas (2019): A numerical exercise on climate change and family planning: World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100 if women of age 15-29 wait and have their first child at age 30+.

Abstract

Family planning could focus on delaying the having of children, instead of (just) reducing the number of children per woman. 66% of all children are born in the mothers’ age group of 15-29. A delay of births to the age of 30+ would cause a reduction of the world population by about 0.8 billion in a direct effect. A secondary effect arises when the later born children grow up and have their delay too. There can also be a learning effect. World population might reduce from 11 to 8 billion in 2100. This would cut projected emissions by some 20%. The effect seems important enough to have more research on reasons, causes and consequences of such delay. Strong delay will cause swings in the dependency ratio, which would require economic flexibility, like a rising retirement age from 65 to 70 years. Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948 stipulates the right to education. This right need not be discussed anew. It may be that education does not adequately discuss family planning though.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: family planning, fertility, birth delay, climate change, population, carbon tax, fertility tax, political economy
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility ; Family Planning ; Child Care ; Children ; Youth; P - Economic Systems > P1 - Capitalist Systems > P16 - Political Economy; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q0 - General > Q01 - Sustainable Development; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth

References

Colignatus is the science name of Thomas Cool, econometrician (Groningen 1982) and teacher of mathematics (Leiden 2008), Scheveningen.

This paper uses an excel sheet, at http://thomascool.eu/Papers/Environment/2019-12-11-Numerical-demography-final.xls

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