Mourão, Paulo (2007): Towards a Fiscal Illusion Index.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_9760.pdf Download (335kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper presents an index of Fiscal Illusion for 68 democratic countries from 1960 to 2006. The studied Fiscal Illusion is the one related to a wrong perception of the budget aggregates according to the voters and taxpayers’ perspectives. In the construction of the index, methodological issues were carefully taken into account. The results obtained reveal that fiscal illusion varies greatly around the world. Countries such as Mali, Pakistan, Russia and Sri Lanka have the highest average values over the time period considered; while Austria, Luxembourg, Netherlands and New Zealand have the lowest. Regarding the time dimension, between 1980 and 1995 there was a significant decrease in the average value of the index across countries, suggesting a reduction in the adoption of fiscal illusion measures during this period. After 1995, the index remained stable in most of the countries.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Towards a Fiscal Illusion Index |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Fiscal Illusion; Indexes/Indicators; Democracy |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy H - Public Economics > H1 - Structure and Scope of Government > H11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology ; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data ; Data Access H - Public Economics > H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents > H30 - General |
Item ID: | 9760 |
Depositing User: | Reis Mourão |
Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2008 01:47 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2019 01:04 |
References: | Alesina, A. and R. Perotti (1996), “Fiscal Discipline and the Budget Process”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 86, 401-407 Alesina, A., Haufman, R., Hommes, R. and E. Stein (1996), “Budget institutions and Fiscal performance in Latin America”, NBER Working Papers Serie, Working Paper 5586 Alizadeh, A. et al. (2000), “Distinct types of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma identified by gene expression profiling”, Nature, 403, 503-511 Alt, J. and D. Lassen (2006), “Fiscal Transparency, Political Parties, and Debt In OECD Countries”, European Economic Review, 50, 6, 1403-1439 Angell, A. (2005), “Democratic governability in Chile”, Conference Paper for Democratic Governability in Latin America, Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame Barro, R. and J. Lee (2000), “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications”, manuscript, Harvard University Becker, G. (1983), “A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 47, 3, 371-400 Bernoth, K. and G. Wolff (2006), “Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia”, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper 19/2006 Brender, A. and A. Drazen (2004), “Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies”, NBER Working Papers Series, Working Paper 10539 Buchanan, J. (1960), Fiscal theory and Political Economy, The University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, pp. 59-64 Buchanan, J. (1967), Public Finance in democratic process: fiscal institutions and individual choice, The University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill CNTSDA (2006), Cross-National Time Series Data Bank, 1815-1999, Databanks International, Jerusalem Cohen, R. and M. Percoco (2004), “The Fiscal Implications of Infrastructure Development”, Actas da Conferencia La inversion en infraestructura en América Latina y el Caribe: Perspectivas y problemas de segunda generación, Washington DPI (2004), Database of Political Institutions, World Bank, Washington Easterly, W. (1999), “When is fiscal adjustment an illusion?”, Policy Research Working Paper Series number 2109, The World Bank Easterly, W. (2001), “Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2531, The World Bank Eusepi, G. (2006), “Public Finance and Welfare: From the ignorance of the veil to the veil of ignorance”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 59, 460-477 Ferguson, G. (1976), Statistical Analysis in Psychology and Education, 4th Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York Forte, F. (2004), “Fiscal and Monetary Illusion and the Maastricht rules”, XVI Conference SIEP – Societá Italiana di Economia Pubblica, Pavia Freudenberg, M. (2003), Composite indicators of country performance: a critical assessment, OECD, Paris Garcia-Alegre, E. and G. Lopez-Casasnovas (2004), “The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services - Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities.”, UPF Working Paper 746, Universitat Pompeu Fabra GFS (2006), Government Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, New York Giglioli, N. and A. Saltelli (2000), “SimLab 1.1, Software for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis, tool for sound modelling”, mimeo, available from http://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0011031 Hahn, A. (1949), The Economics of Illusion – A Critical analysis of contemporary economic theory and practice, Fraser Publishing Company, New York Hair, J. et al. (2005), Multivariate Data Analysis (6th Edition), Prentice Hall, New York Hallerberg, M., Strauch, R. and J. Von Hagen (2005), “Fiscal Rules in the European Union 1991-2001: Updating the Von Hagen Fiscal Index,” mimeo Hameed, F. (2005), “Fiscal Transparency and Economic Outcomes”, IMF Working Paper, WP/05/225 ICRG (2006), International Country Risk Guide (2006), The Political Risk Services Group, New York IFS (2006), International Financial Statistics, International Monetary Fund, New York ILO (2006), International Labour Organization Statistics, International Labour Organization, Geneva Jackson, J. (2003), A User’s Guide to Principal Components, John Wiley & Sons, Wiley-Interscience, New Jersey Jacobs, R. Smith, P. and M. Goddard (2004), "Measuring performance: an examination of composite performance indicators”, Centre for Health Economics Technical Paper Series 29 Jensen, F. and N. Vestergaard (1999), “Regulation of Renewable Resources in Federal Systems – the case of fishery in EU”, Working Papers 3/99, Department of Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark Johnson, R. and D. Wichern (2007), Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis, 6th Edition, Prentice Hall, New York Jolliffe, I. (2002), Principal Component Analysis, 2nd edition, Springer Science, New York Jones, P. (2006), “Taking self-interest into account – a Public Choice analysis of international cooperation”, in Kaul, I. and P. Conceiçao (2006), The New Public Finance, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 304-323 Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and M. Mastruzzi (2006), “Governance Matters V: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators for 1996-2005”, The World Bank Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and P. Zoido-Lobatón(1999), “Aggregating Governance Indicators”, Policy Research Working Paper 2195, The World Bank Keefer, P. and S. Knack (1997), “Why don’t poor countries catch up? A cross-national test of institutional Explanation”, Economic Inquiry, 35, 3, 590-602 Kent, J., Bibby, J., and K. Mardia (2006), Multivariate Analysis (Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Elsevier, New York Kroonenberg, P. (2008), Applied Multiway Data Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, Wiley Interscience, New Jersey. Lipford, J. (2001), “How transparent is the US Budget?”, The Independent Review, 5, 4, 575-591. Little R. (1997), “Biostatistical Analysis with Missing Data”, in Armitage, P. and T. Colton, eds. (1997), Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, Wiley, London Little R. and D. Rubin (2002), Statistical Analysis with Missing Data, Wiley Interscience, J. Wiley &Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey Little, R. and N. Schenker (1994), “Missing Data”, in Arminger, G., Clogg, C. and M. Sobel, eds (1994), Handbook for Statistical Modeling in the Social and Behavioral Sciences, Plenum, New York, 39-75. Mourao, P. (2005), “A importância do desenvolvimento regional na localização das equipas de futebol profissionais. O caso português 1970-1999”, Revista Portuguesa de Estudos Regionais, vol. 8, 31-45 Mourao, P. (2007), “The Economics of Illusion – a discussion based in Fiscal Illusion”, Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 25, 1 (forthcoming) Musgrove, T. and R. Walsh (2005), “Utilizing multiple agents in dynamic product recommendations”, Nineteen International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence Paper, Edinburgh, Scotland Nardo, M. et al. (2005), "Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide", OECD Statistics Working Papers, 2005/3,OECD Publishing Nguyen, D., Wang, N. and R. Carroll (2004), “Evaluation of Missing Value Estimation for Microarray data”, Journal of Data Science, 2, 4, 347-370 Nicoletti, G., Scarpetta, S. and O. Boylaud (2000), “Summary indicators of product market regulation with an extension to employment protection legislation”, OECD, Economics department working papers 226 OECD (2001), “OECD Best Practices for Budget Transparency”, Public Management Committee, PUMA/SBO(2000)6/FINAL Ovaska, T. (2003), Essays on International Political Economy, PhD Dissertation, West Virginia University Pommerehne, W. and F. Schneider (1978), “Fiscal Illusion Political Institutions and local spending“, Kyklos, 31, 381-408 Puviani, A. (1903), Teoria della illusione finanziaria, Sandron, Palermo Russell, E., Chiang, L. and R. Braatz (2000), “Fault detection in industrial processes using canonical variate analysis and dynamic principal component analysis”, Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, 51, 81-93 Sanandaji, T. and B. Wallace (2003), “Fiscal Illusion and fiscal obfuscation: an empirical study of tax perception in Sweden”, M. Sc. Thesis in Economics, Stockolm School of Economics, Stockolm Sanz, I. and F. Vélasquez, 2003, “Fiscal illusion, fiscal consolidation and government expenditure composition in the OECD: a dynamic panel data approach”, European Economy Group Working Paper 21/2003, Universidad Complutense de Madrid. Shi, M. and J. Svensson (2002), “Political budget cycles in developed and developing countries”, manuscript, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University Tucker, L. (1966), “Some mathematical notes on three-mode factor analysis”, Psychometrika, 31, 279-311 Twight, C. (1994), “Political Transaction-Cost Manipulation: An Integrating Approach”, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 6, 189 – 216 Von Hagen, J. (1992), “Budgeting Procedures and Fiscal Performance in the European Communities”, Economic Papers, 96 Von Hagen, J. and I. Harden (1995), “Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline”, European Economic Review, 39, 771-779 VTs1945 (2002), Voter Turnout since 1945: a global report, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (eds: Rafael López Pintor and Maria Gratschew), Stockolm Wagner, R. (2001), “From the Politics of Illusion to the High Cost of Regulation”, Of public interest, 3 (8) WDI (2006), World Development Indicators, Word Bank, Washington Weymouth, S. (2008), “Political institutions and property rights: financial sector evidence”, Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1103533 Wilks, S. (1932), “Certain generalizations in the analysis of variance”, Biometrika, 24, 471-494 Winter, S. and P. Mouritzen (2001), “Why people want something for nothing: The role of asymmetric illusion”, European Journal of Political Research, 39, 109-143 Wittman, D. (1995), The myth of democratic failure: why political institutions are efficient, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago Wold, S. (1994), “Exponentially weighted moving principal components analysis and projections to latent structures”, Chemometrcis Intell. Lab. Syst., 23, 149-161 Zimmerman, D. and B. Zumbo (2005), “Can Percentiles replace raw scores in the statistical analysis of test data?”, Educational and Psychological Measurement, 65, 4, 616-638 Cited Electronic Sites: http://www.idealist.org/ http://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/ |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/9760 |