Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

Jackson, Emerson Abraham (2020): Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

This study was carried out with the purpose of producing twelve out-of-sample forecast for a univariate exchange rate variable as a way of addressing challenges faced around dollarization issues in the domestic economy. In pursuit of this, the ARIMA model was utilised, with the best model [1,4,7] indicating that the Sierra Leone - Leone [SLL] currency will continue to depreciate against the United States Dollar [US$] throughout most part of the year 2020. This was done on the assumption of Ceteris Paribus condition, and most importantly on the view that past events of the univariate exchange rate variable is a determinant of future outcomes or performances. In a bid to moving forward, policy recommendations have suggested high level collaboration between relevant policy institutions like the Bank of Sierra Leone and the Ministry of Finance to address issues of concern, for example, a boost to the real sector and many more.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Box-Jenkins ARIMA, Exchange Rate, Forecast, Sierra Leone
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods ; Simulation Methods; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications; F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange; F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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