Model simplification and variable selection: A Replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)

Błażejowski, Marcin and Kufel, Paweł and Kwiatkowski, Jacek (2018): Model simplification and variable selection: A Replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001). Forthcoming in: Journal of Applied Econometrics

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the well-known UK inflation model by Hendry (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2001, 16:255-275. doi: 10.1002/jae.615). We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach to compare model reduction strategies. Allowing for the investigation of other specifications, we confirm the same set of significant determinants but find that Hendrys' model is not the most probable.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: BACE, gretl, model uncertainty, reduction strategy
• Subjects: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General; C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level ; Inflation ; Deflation

References

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