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Termes de l'échange, balance commerciale et performances économiques : examen de l'effet Harberger - Laursen - Metzler en République Démocratique du Congo

Mupu Mamputu, Élie (2020): Termes de l'échange, balance commerciale et performances économiques : examen de l'effet Harberger - Laursen - Metzler en République Démocratique du Congo. Forthcoming in: ECONOMIK , Vol. 1, No. 2 (June 2020): pp. 117-137.

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to examine the link between terms of trade and trade balance on the one hand, and terms of trade and economic performance on the other. To answer this question, this paper estimates a VAR model and applies the Granger (1969) causality test to examine these links above during the period 1994-2017. the estimation, causality and impulse response results predict, on the one hand, a negative and statistically insignificant relationship, and a two-way causality between terms of trade and trade balance and, on the other hand, a positive impact, and unidirectional causality of terms of trade shocks on economic performance. Moreover, these results manage to clarify the debate on the HLM effect in the DRC

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