Dewitte, Ruben (2020): From Heavy-Tailed Micro to Macro: on the characterization of firm-level heterogeneity and its aggregation properties.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_103170.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper emphasizes the importance of two sufficient statistics to characterize firm-level heterogeneity in the workhorse heterogeneous firms trade model: the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and the mean of firm-level sales. Contradicting the strong focus on the CDF, a close fit to average sales proves to be critical for model performance. Moreover, this average varies largely across finite sample draws due to sales being heavy-tailed, providing evidence that individual firms can influence the aggregate economy. As a result, modeled aggregate trade elasticities and Gains From Trade are unlikely to materialize: they are biased in finite samples and underlying characterizations of firm-level heterogeneity are rejected by the data.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | From Heavy-Tailed Micro to Macro: on the characterization of firm-level heterogeneity and its aggregation properties. |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Average productivity, firm size distribution, heavy-tailed Distributions, granularity, gains from trade |
Subjects: | F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F11 - Neoclassical Models of Trade F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies ; Fragmentation L - Industrial Organization > L1 - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance > L11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure ; Size Distribution of Firms |
Item ID: | 103170 |
Depositing User: | Dr. Ruben Dewitte |
Date Deposited: | 29 Sep 2020 09:38 |
Last Modified: | 29 Sep 2020 09:38 |
References: | Arkolakis, C. (2016). A Unified Theory of Firm Selection and Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (1), 89–115. Arkolakis, C., A. Costinot, and A. Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2012). New Trade Models, Same Old Gains? American Economic Review 102 (1), 94–130. Athreya, K. et al. (1987). Bootstrap of the mean in the infinite variance case. The Annals of Statistics 15 (2), 724–731. Atkeson, A. and A. Burstein (2010). Innovation, firm dynamics, and international trade. Journal of Political Economy 118 (3), 433–484. Axtell, R. L. (2001). Zipf Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes. Science 293 (5536), 1818–1820. Bakar, S. A., N. Hamzah, M. Maghsoudi, and S. Nadarajah (2015). Modeling loss data using composite models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 61, 146 – 154. Bas, M., T. Mayer, and M. Thoenig (2017). From micro to macro: Demand, supply, and hetero- geneity in the trade elasticity. Journal of International Economics 108, 1 – 19. Bee, M. and S. Schiavo (2018). Powerless: gains from trade when firm productivity is not Pareto distributed. Review of World Economics 154 (1), 15–45. Bernard, A. B., J. B. Jensen, S. J. Redding, and P. K. Schott (2012). The empirics of firm heterogeneity and international trade. Annual Review of Economics 4 (1), 283–313. Carvalho, V. M. and B. Grassi (2019, April). Large firm dynamics and the business cycle. American Economic Review 109 (4), 1375–1425. Cavaliere, G., I. Georgiev, and A. Robert Taylor (2013). Wild bootstrap of the sample mean in the infinite variance case. Econometric Reviews 32 (2), 204–219. Cernat, L. (2014). Towards “Trade Policy Analysis 2.0”. From national comparative advantage to firm-level data. Chief Economist Note 4, European Central Bank. Chaney, T. (2008, September). Distorted gravity: The intensive and extensive margins of interna- tional trade. American Economic Review 98 (4), 1707–21. Clauset, A., C. R. Shalizi, and M. E. J. Newman (2009). Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data. SIAM Review 51 (4), 661–703. Cornea-Madeira, A. and R. Davidson (2015). A parametric bootstrap for heavy-tailed distributions. Econometric Theory 31 (3), 449–470. Costantini, J. and M. Melitz (2008). The dynamics of firm-level adjustment to trade liberalization. The organization of firms in a global economy 4, 107–141. Costinot, A. and A. Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2014). Chapter 4 - Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization. In G. Gopinath, E. Helpman, and K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Volume 4 of Handbook of International Economics, pp. 197–261. Elsevier. Davidson, R. (2012). Statistical inference in the presence of heavy tails. The Econometrics Journal 15 (1), C31–C53. Dewitte, R., M. Dumont, G. Rayp, and P. Willem´e (2019). Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Productivity Distribution and Gains From Trade. MPRA Paper 102711, Ghent University. di Giovanni, J. and A. A. Levchenko (2012). Country size, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations in granular economies. Journal of Political Economy 120 (6), 1083–1132. di Giovanni, J., A. A. Levchenko, and R. Ranci`ere (2011). Power laws in firm size and openness to trade: Measurement and implications. Journal of International Economics 85 (1), 42–52. Durrett, R. (2010). Probability: theory and examples, Volume Fourth Edition. Cambridge university press. Eaton, J., S. Kortum, and F. Kramarz (2011). An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms. Econometrica 79 (5), 1453–1498. Eaton, J., S. S. Kortum, and S. Sotelo (2012). International trade: Linking micro and macro. NBER Working Paper 17864, National bureau of economic research. Fedotenkov, I. (2013). A bootstrap method to test for the existence of finite moments. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics 25 (2), 315–322. Fedotenkov, I. (2014). A note on the bootstrap method for testing the existence of finite moments. Statistica 74 (4), 447–453. Fernandes, A. M., P. J. Klenow, S. Meleshchuk, M. D. Pierola, and A. Rodr´ıguez-Clare (2018). The Intensive Margin in Trade: Moving Beyond Pareto. Policy Research working paper WPS 8625, World Bank Group. Gabaix, X. (2009). Power laws in economics and finance. Annual Review of Economics 1 (1), 255–294. Gabaix, X. (2011). The granular origins of aggregate fluctuations. Econometrica 79 (3), 733–772. Gabaix, X. and R. Ibragimov (2011). Rank - 1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 29 (1), 24–39. Hall, P. and Q. Yao (2003). Inference in arch and garch models with heavy–tailed errors. Econo- metrica 71 (1), 285–317. Head, K., T. Mayer, and M. Thoenig (2014). Welfare and Trade without Pareto. American Economic Review 104 (5), 310–16. Ioannides, Y. and S. Skouras (2013). Us city size distribution: Robustly pareto, but only in the tail. Journal of Urban Economics 73 (1), 18 – 29. Knight, K. (1989). On the bootstrap of the sample mean in the infinite variance case. The Annals of Statistics 17 (3), 1168–1175. Luckstead, J. and S. Devadoss (2017). Pareto tails and lognormal body of us cities size distribution. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 465, 573 – 578. Luttmer, E. G. (2007). Selection, growth, and the size distribution of firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (3), 1103–1144. Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity. Econometrica 71 (6), 1695–1725. Melitz, M. J. and S. J. Redding (2014). Chapter 1 - Heterogeneous Firms and Trade. In E. H. Gita Gopinath and K. Rogoff (Eds.), Handbook of International Economics, Volume 4 of Hand- book of International Economics, pp. 1–54. Elsevier. Melitz, M. J. and S. J. Redding (2015). New Trade Models, New Welfare Implications. American Economic Review 105 (3), 1105–46. Mr´azov´a, M., P. Neary, and M. Parenti (2015). Technology, Demand, And The Size Distribution Of Firms. Economics Series Working Papers 774, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. Nigai, S. (2017). A tale of two tails: Productivity distribution and the gains from trade. Journal of International Economics 104, 44–62. Perline, R. (2005). Strong, weak and false inverse power laws. Statistical Science 20 (1), 68–88. Reed, W. J. and M. Jorgensen (2004). The double pareto-lognormal distribution—a new parametric model for size distributions. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 33 (8), 1733– 1753. Romano, J. P. and M. Wolf (1999). Subsampling inference for the mean in the heavy-tailed case. Metrika 50 (1), 55–69. Sager, E. and O. A. Timoshenko (2019). The double emg distribution and trade elasticities. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'economique 52 (4), 1523-1557. Taleb, N. N. (2019). How much data do you need? an operational, pre-asymptotic metric for fat-tailedness. International Journal of Forecasting 35 (2), 677–686. Trapani, L. (2016). Testing for (in) finite moments. Journal of Econometrics 191 (1), 57–68. Van der Vaart, A. W. (1998). Asymptotic statistics, Volume 3. Cambridge university press. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/103170 |