Basic Income Simulations for the Province of British Columbia

Green, David A. and Kesselman, Jonathan Rhys and Tedds, Lindsay M. and Crisan, I. Daria and Petit, Gillian (2020): Basic Income Simulations for the Province of British Columbia.

Abstract

An important component of the work to be completed by the British Columbia’s Expert Panel on Basic Income is to design simulations to look at how various basic income (BI) models could work in B.C. (B.C. Poverty Reduction, 2018). The intent of these simulations is to identify the potential impacts and financial implications for B.C. residents of different variants of a BI. Given the poverty reduction targets passed by the B.C. government, detailed in Petit and Tedds (2020d), the potential impacts include those on the incidence and the depths of poverty in the province (B.C. Poverty Reduction, n.d.). The panel ran over 16,000 different BI scenarios to consider in B.C., which were modelled using Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) program. We evaluate different BI scenarios in terms of their implications for a variety of measures, including cost, number of recipients, rates of poverty, depths of poverty, distributional affects, and inequality impacts. This paper provides details regarding these simulations. Our goal in this paper is simply to consider different versions of a basic income in terms of both their cost implications and their implications for poverty reduction. We believe that identifying the most effective variants of a basic income in terms of these two criteria will help sharpen the conversation about the applicability of a basic income as a policy option for B.C.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Basic income; Simulations; Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model; Poverty Reduction; Distributional affects; Inequality.
• Subjects: I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I38 - Government Policy ; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs; I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty > I39 - Other

References

B.C. Ministry of Finance. (2019). Budget and Fiscal Plan 2019/20-2021/22. Victoria, B.C. Retrieved from https://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2019/pdf/2019_budget_and_fiscal_plan.pdf.

B.C. Poverty Reduction. (2018). Basic Income. Retrieved February 7 from https://engage.gov.bc.ca/bcpovertyreduction/basic-income/

B.C. Poverty Reduction. (n.d.). Read the What We Heard Report and Public and Stakeholder Input. Retrieved February 7 from https://engage.gov.bc.ca/bcpovertyreduction/read-public-and-stakeholder-input/

Boadway, R., Cuff, K., & Koebel, K. (2018a, 2018-12-07). Can Self-Financing Redeem the Basic Income Guarantee? Disincentives, Efficiency Costs, Tax Burdens, and Attitudes: A Rejoinder [Comment]. Canadian Public Policy, 44(4), 447-457. https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2018-044

Boadway, R., Cuff, K., & Koebel, K. (2018b). Designing a Basic Income Guarantee for Canada. In E. Goodyear-Grant, R. Johnston, W. Kymlicka, & J. Myles (Eds.), Federalism and the Welfare State in a Multicultural World. Queen's University Press.

Cameron, A., & Tedds, L. M. (2020). Gender-based Analysis (GBA+) of the Alternatives. School of Public Policy University of Calgary.

Cameron, A., Tedds, L. M., Robson, J., & Schwartz, S. (2020, February 12, 2020). Tax Policy Trends: The Merits of Automatic Income Tax Assessments for Low-Income Canadians. SPP Research Papers, 1. https://www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Tax-policy-Trends-Feb-2020.pdf

Expert Committee on the Guaranteed Minimum Income. (2018). Guaranteed Minimum Income:: A Utopia.

Kesselman, J. R. (2020). Design Choice for Income-Transfer Programs: Structural, Economic, and Operational Aspects. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Koebel, K., & Pohler, D. (2019). Expanding the Canada Workers Benefit to Design a Guaranteed Basic Income. Canadian Public Policy, 45(3), 283-309.

Petit, G., & Tedds, L. M. (2020a). Gender-based Analysis (GBA+) of the Current Transfer and Services Affecting BC Residents. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Petit, G., & Tedds, L. M. (2020b). Interactions Between Income and Social Support Programs in B.C. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Petit, G., & Tedds, L. M. (2020c). Overview of the System of Income and Social Support Programs in British Columbia. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Petit, G., & Tedds, L. M. (2020d). Poverty in British Columbia: Income Thresholds, Trends, Rates, and Depths of Poverty. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Simpson, W., Mason, G., & Godwin, R. (2017, 2017-02-13). The Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment: Lessons Learned 40 Years Later [research-article]. Canadian Public Policy, 43(1), 85-104. https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2016-082

Simpson, W., & Stevens, H. L. (2019, April 30, 2019). An Alberta Guaranteed Basic Income: Issues and Options. The School of Public Policy Publications, 12(15). https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3386711

Statistics Canada. (n.d.). SPSD/M Product Overview. http://odesi2.scholarsportal.info/documentation/FINBUS/SPSD/V18.1/DOCS/spsdm-bdmsps-overview-vuedensemble-eng.pdf Statistics Canada (2020). Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M). Version 28 database year 2016.

Stevens, H., & Simpson, W. (2017, 2017-05-17). Toward a National Universal Guaranteed Basic Income [research-article]. Canadian Public Policy, 43(2), 120-139. https://doi.org/10.3138/cpp.2016-042

Tedds, L. M., & Crisan, D. (2020). Evaluating the Existing Literature Basic Income Simulation Literature. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.

Tedds, L. M., Crisan, D., & Petit, G. (2020). Basic Income in Canada: Principles and Design Features. Research paper commissioned by the Expert Panel on Basic Income, British Columbia.