Examining the relationship between Tourism Seasonality and Tourism Carrying Capacity indexes for the Greek prefectures

Krabokoukis, Thomas and Polyzos, Serafeim (2020): Examining the relationship between Tourism Seasonality and Tourism Carrying Capacity indexes for the Greek prefectures. Published in: MIBES Transactions , Vol. 14, No. 1 (December 2020): pp. 56-65.

Abstract

Tourism seasonality and tourism carrying capacity are major issues in the study of the tourism phenomenon. Destinations with high values in related indexes are faced with tourism saturation and sustainability. Within this context, this paper examines the relationship between tourism seasonality and tourism carrying capacity of the Greek prefectures, on data referring for the year 2018. The analysis measures tourism seasonality based on the Relative Seasonal Index (RSI), while for measurement of tourism carrying capacity (TCC) used an index consisting of fourteen sub-indices. The two variables are examined by using statistical techniques to classify the Greek prefectures by their performance. In further analysis, is applying a simple linear regression and outlier cases identified. The overall approach proposes a useful quantitative tool for tourism management and regional development because it allows considering in common the temporal and spatial dimensions of the tourism seasonality phenomenon.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: tourism seasonality; tourism carrying capacity; regional development; spatial distribution; classification
• Subjects: L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics

References

Ahmad, N., Menegaki, A., Al-Muharrami, S., 2020, “Systematic literature review of tourism growth nexus: An overview of the literature and a content analysis of 100 most influential papers”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 34(4), 1068-1110. doi:10.1111/joes.12386 Attallah, N., 2015, “The Estimation of Physical and Real Carrying Capacity with Application on Egypt’s Tourist Sites”, Journal of Tourism Research, 12(1), 65 – 82. Batista e Silva, F., Kavalov, B., Lavalle, C., 2019, “Socio-economic regional microscope series - Territorial patterns of tourism intensity and seasonality in the EU”, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. doi:10.2760/061885 Bertocchi, D., Camatti, N., Ciove, S., van der Borg, J., 2020, “Venice and Overtourism: Simulating Sustainable Development Scenarios through a Tourism Carrying Capacity Model”, Sustainability, 12. doi:10.3390/su12020512 Boslaugh, S., Watters, P., 2012, Statistics in a Nutshell, United States of America: O’Reilly. Butler, R.W. 2001. Seasonality in Tourism: Issues and Implication (eds.) Seasonality in Tourism; Baum, T., Lundtorp, S., Elsevier Ltd.: Oxford, UK, pp.5–21. ISBN 9780080436746 Canestrelli E., and Costa P., 1991, “Tourist carrying capacity: A fuzzy approach” Annals of tourism research, 18(2), 295-311. doi:10.1016/0160-7383(91)90010-9 Castellani, V., Sala, A., Pitea, D., 2007 “A new method for tourism carrying capacity”, Transaction on Ecology and the Environment, 106(1), 365 – 374. Coccossis, H., Mexa, A., 2004, The challenge of tourism carrying capacity assessment: Theory and Practice. UK: Ashgate Publishing Ltd. Dodds, R., Butler, R. (eds.) Overtourism: Issues, Realities and Solutions, De Gruyter: Berlin, Germany, 2019. Duro, A., 2016, “Seasonality of hotel demand in the main Spanish provinces: Measurements and decomposition exercises”, Tourism Management 52(1), 52-63. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2015.06.013 Feliziani, V., Miarelli, M., 2012, “How Many Visitors Should There Be in the City? The Case of Rome”. Review of European Studies, 4(2), 179-187. doi:10.5539/res.v4n2p179 Fernandez-Morales, A., Cisneros-Martinez, J. D., McCabe, S., 2016, “Seasonal concentration of tourism demand: Decomposition analysis and marketing implication”, Tourism Management 56(1), 172–190 doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2016.04.004 Ferrante, M., Lo Magno, G., De Cantis, S, 2018, “Measuring tourism seasonality across European countries”, Tourism Management 68(1), 220-235. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2018.03.015 Ikkos, A., Koutsos, S., 2020, Tourism and Greek economy 2018-2019, INSETE https://insete.gr/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/20_09_Tourism_and_Greek_Economy_2018-2019.pdf Jurado, E., Tejada, M., Almeida Garcia, F., Cabello Conzalez, J., Cortes Macias, R., Delgado Pena, J., Fernandez Gutierrez, F., Gutierez Fernandez, G., Luque Gallego, M., Malvarez Garcia, G., Marcerano Gutierrez, O., Navas Cocha, F., Ruiz de la Rua, F., Ruiz Sinoga, J., Solis Beccerra, F., 2012, “Carrying capacity assessment for tourist destinations. Methodology for the creation of synthetic indicators applied in a coastal area”, Tourism Management 33(1), 1337 – 1346. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2011.12.017 Kalantzi, O., Tsiotas, D., Polyzos, S., 2016, “The contribution of tourism in national economies: evidence of Greece”, European Journal of Business and Social Sciences (EJBSS) 5(5), 41–64. Koens, K., Postma, A., Papp, B., 2018, “Is Overtourism Overused? Understanding the Impact of Tourism in a City Context”, Sustainability 10, 4384. doi:10.3390/su10124384 Krabokoukis, T., Polyzos, S. 2020b, “An investigation of factors determining the tourism attractiveness of Greece's prefectures”, Journal of the Knowledge Economy. 10.1007/s13132-020-00704-7 Krabokoukis, T., Polyzos, S., 2020a, “Spatial inequalities of tourist activity in Greece: A Shift-Share Analysis”, Anatolia 12(2). doi:10.1080/13032917.2020.1851271 Kyriakou, K., Sourianos, E., Vagiona, D., 2011, “Tourism development and carrying capacity in the Rhodes island, Greece”, 3rd International Conference on Environmental Management, Engineering, Planning and Economics (CEMEPE 2011) and SECOTOX Conference, Skiathos, 19 – 24 June. Lagos D., Papatheodorou, A., Stavrinoudis, Th., 2015, Comparative evaluation of the carrying capacity of tourist development in the islands of Kos and Rhodes (eds.) Insularity and sustainability: the case of Aegean islands. Lo Magno, L., Ferrante, M., De Cantis, S., 2017, “A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach”. Mathematical Social Sciences 88(1), 55-65. doi:10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2017.05.002 Martin, J., Fernandez J.A., Martin, J., 2019, “Comprehensive evaluation of the tourism seasonality using a synthetic DP2 indicator”, Tourism Geographies 21(2), 284-305. doi:10.1080/14616688.2018.1505943 Marzetti, S., Mosetti, R., 2005, Social carrying capacity of mass tourist sites: Theoritical and practical issues about its measurement, Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development - Macro and Micro Economic Issues, 16 – 17 September. Chia, Italy: CRENoS (Università di Cagliari and Sassari, Italy. Menegaki, A., “Economic aspects of cyclical implementation in Greek sustainable hospitality”, International Journal of Tourism Policy, 8(4). doi:10.1504/IJTP.2018.098896 Nghi, T., Lan, N., Thai, N., Mai, D., Thanh, D., 2007, “Tourism carrying capacity assessment for Phong Nha – Ke Bang and Dong Hoi, Quang Binh Province”, VNU Journal of Science, Earth Sciences 23(1), 80 – 87. Norusis, M. 2011. IBM SPSS Regression 20 available at the URL: https://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/en/SSLVMB_23.0.0/spss/base/idh_disc.html [accessed: 08/11/2020]. OECD, 2018, Analysing megatrends to better shape the future of tourism, OECD Tourism Papers, No. 2018/01, OECD Publishing, Paris. doi:10.1787/d465eb68-en Polyzos, S., 2019, Regional Development, Athens, Greece: Kritiki. ISBN 9789602187302 Porhallsdottir, G., Olafsson, R., 2017, “A method to analyse seasonality in the distribution of tourists in Iceland”, Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism 19(1), 17-24. doi:10.1016/j.jort.2017.05.001 Saeporsdottir, A., Hall, M., Wendt, M., 2020, “Overtourism in Iceland: Fantasy or Reality?”, Sustainability 12, 7375. doi:10.3390/su12187375 Seraphin, H., Sheeran, P., & Pilato, M., 2018, “Over-tourism and the fall of Venice as a destination”, Journal of Destination Marketing and Management. doi:10.1016/j.jdmm.2018.01.011 Stefanidaki E., and Lekakou M., 2014, “Cruise carrying capacity: A conceptual approach”, Research in Transportation Business & Management 13, 43-52. doi:10.1016/j.rtbm.2014.11.005 Tsiotas, D., 2017, “The imprint of tourism on the topology of maritime networks: evidence from Greece”, Anatolia 28(1), 52-68. doi:10.1080/13032917.2016.1247289 Tsiotas, D., Krabokoukis, T., Polyzos, S., 2020a, “Detecting interregional patterns in tourism seasonality of Greece: A principal components analysis approach”, Regional Science Inquiry, XII(2), 91-112. ISSN:1791-7735 Tsiotas, D., Krabokoukis, T., Polyzos, S., 2020b, Examining the relationship between tourism seasonality and saturation for the Greek prefectures: A combined operational and TALC-theoretic approach, 7th International Conference on “Culture and Tourism in a Smart, Globalized and Sustainable World”, International Association of Cultural and Digital Tourism (IACUDIT 2020), Hydra island, Greece, September 2nd-4th. UNEP (PAP/RAC), 1997, Guidelines for carrying capacity assessment for tourism in Mediterranean coastal areas. Priority Actions Program. Regional Activity Centre, Split, Croatia. Urtasun, A., Gutiérrez, I., 2006, “Tourism agglomeration and its impact on social welfare: An empirical approach to the Spanish case”, Tourism Management. 27. 901-912. doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2005.05.004 Wang, J., Huang, X., Gong, Z., Cao, K., 2020, “Dynamic assessment of tourism carrying capacity and its impacts on tourism economic growth in urban tourism destinations in China”, Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 15, 1-15. doi:10.1016/j.jdmm.2019.100383