The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic

Tsoulfidis, Lefteris and Tsaliki, Persefoni (2021): The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic.

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements

Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Long recession, secular stagnation, pandemic, long cycles, institutional changes, disruptive innovations
• Subjects: B - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches > B5 - Current Heterodox Approaches; D - Microeconomics > D3 - Distribution > D33 - Factor Income Distribution; E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models; N - Economic History > N1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics ; Industrial Structure ; Growth ; Fluctuations > N12 - U.S. ; Canada: 1913-; O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O51 - U.S. ; Canada

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