Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa

Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean Luc and Dikgang, Johane and Muteba Mwamba, John W. and Gelo, Dambala (2021): Climate variability impacts on agricultural output in East Africa.

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the effects of weather variability in temperature and precipitation on agricultural output are short- or long-run. In fact, the study addresses two policy-relevant questions: (1) Does temperature or precipitation variability affect agricultural output, and if so, is the effect short- or long-term? (2) Is the effect of weather variability on agricultural output homogenous across East Africa? However, there is clear evidence of cross-country dependency. If cross-sectional dependency exists among the cross-sectional countries under investigation, the first generation of panel data techniques is not applicable. We use data from the FAOSTAT for 1961 to 2016 for East African countries, while climate-related variables (temperature and precipitation) are from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We find that variability in temperature has a long-run impact on agricultural output, while variability in precipitation has a short-run effect. However, after considering the heterogeneity among countries, there is evidence of the long-run effect of precipitation variability in some countries.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Climate variability, agricultural output, cross-sectional dependency, heterogeneity
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q2 - Renewable Resources and Conservation; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters and Their Management ; Global Warming

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