Konradt, Maximilian (2023): Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database.
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_116209.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper investigates the financial risk-taking behavior of pension funds since 2000. I assemble a new database containing portfolio holdings of more than 100 pension funds from 14 advanced economies. The study reveals three key findings. First, I show that pension fund portfolios have become riskier over that period, with an average increase in risky asset weights of 4 percentage points since 2008. European pension funds tend to invest more in public equities, while North American and Asian funds focus on alternative assets. Second, I find evidence that declining domestic risk-free rates play a significant role in driving the trend, with pension funds increasing their risky asset exposure in response to falling short-term interest rates. Third, I demonstrate that less underfunded pension funds with fewer risky assets tend to reach for yield more aggressively, which is exacerbated during periods of low risk-free rates. This is most pronounced for European pension funds, particularly after the global financial crisis.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Low interest rates, Pension funds, Risk-taking, Reach for yield |
Subjects: | E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E43 - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects F - International Economics > F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business > F21 - International Investment ; Long-Term Capital Movements G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G11 - Portfolio Choice ; Investment Decisions G - Financial Economics > G2 - Financial Institutions and Services > G23 - Non-bank Financial Institutions ; Financial Instruments ; Institutional Investors |
Item ID: | 116209 |
Depositing User: | Maximilian Konradt |
Date Deposited: | 02 Feb 2023 15:30 |
Last Modified: | 02 Feb 2023 15:31 |
References: | Altavilla, Carlo, Luca Brugnolini, Refet S G¨urkaynak, Roberto Motto, and Giuseppe Ragusa. 2019. “Measuring euro area monetary policy.” Journal of Monetary Economics 108:162–179. Ammer, John, Stijn Claessens, Alexandra Tabova, and Caleb Wroblewski. 2019. “Home country interest rates and international investment in US bonds.” Journal of International Money and Finance 95:212–227. Andonov, Aleksandar, Rob Bauer, and Martijn Cremers. 2012. “Can large pension funds beat the market? Asset Allocation, Market Timing, Security Selection and the Limits of Liquidity.” mimeo. Andonov, Aleksandar, Rob Bauer, and Martijn Cremers. 2017. “Pension fund asset allocation and liability discount rates.” The Review of Financial Studies 30 (8): 2555–2595. Andonov, Aleksandar, and Joshua D Rauh. 2022. “The return expectations of public pension funds.” The Review of Financial Studies 35 (8): 3777–3822. Antolin, Pablo. 2008. “Pension fund performance.” OECD Working Papers on Insurance and Private Pensions No. 20. Autrup, Søren Lejsgaard, and Jakob Roager Jensen. 2021. “QE in a quasi-preferred habitat: The case of the Danish pension sector and the ECB asset purchase programme.” Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers No. 167. Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. 2015. “Reaching for yield in the bond market.” The Journal of Finance 70 (5): 1863–1902. Bergant, Katharina, and Martin Schmitz. 2019. “Valuation effects and international capital flows: Security-level evidence from euro area investors.” mimeo. Bergstresser, Daniel, Mihir Desai, and Joshua Rauh. 2006. “Earnings manipulation, pension assumptions, and managerial investment decisions.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (1): 157–195. Bikker, Jacob A, Dirk WGA Broeders, and Jan De Dreu. 2010. “Stock market performance and pension fund investment policy: rebalancing, free float, or market timing.” International Journal of Central Banking 6 (2): 53–79. Bohn, Henning, and Linda L Tesar. 1996. “US equity investment in foreign markets: portfolio rebalancing or return chasing?” American Economic Review 86 (2): 77–81. Brennan, Michael J, and H Henry Cao. 1997. “International portfolio investment flows.” The Journal of Finance 52 (5): 1851–1880. Calvet, Laurent E, John Y Campbell, and Paolo Sodini. 2009. “Fight or flight? Portfolio rebalancing by individual investors.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (1): 301–348. Camanho, Nelson, Harald Hau, and H´elene Rey. 2022. “Global portfolio rebalancing and exchange rates.” The Review of Financial Studies 35 (11): 5228–5274. Campbell, John Y, and Roman Sigalov. 2022. “Portfolio choice with sustainable spending: A model of reaching for yield.” Journal of Financial Economics 143 (1): 188–206. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel. 2014. “Effects of unconventional monetary policy on financial institutions.” NBER Working Paper No. 20230. Choi, Jaewon, and Mathias Kronlund. 2018. “Reaching for yield in corporate bond mutual funds.” The Review of Financial Studies 31 (5): 1930–1965. Di Maggio, Marco, and Marcin Kacperczyk. 2017. “The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy.” Journal of Financial Economics 123 (1): 59–80. Domanski, Dietrich, Hyun Song Shin, and Vladyslav Sushko. 2017. “The hunt for duration: not waving but drowning?” IMF Economic Review 65 (1): 113–153. Ellul, Andrew, Chotibhak Jotikasthira, Anastasia V Kartasheva, Christian T Lundblad, and Wolf Wagner. 2021. “Insurers as asset managers and systemic risk.” Kelley School of Business Research Paper, no. 18-4:18–18. French, Kenneth R. 2008. “Presidential address: The cost of active investing.” The Journal of Finance 63 (4): 1537–1573. Gilchrist, Simon, and Egon Zakrajˇsek. 2012. “Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations.” American Economic Review 102 (4): 1692–1720. Greenwood, Robin M, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. 2018. “The impact of pensions and insurance on global yield curves.” Harvard Business School Finance Working Paper, no. 18-109:19–59. Handley, Kyle, and J Frank Li. 2020. “Measuring the effects of firm uncertainty on economic activity: New evidence from one million documents.” NBER Working Paper No. 27896. Harvey, Campbell R. 1991. “The world price of covariance risk.” The Journal of Finance 46 (1): 111–157. Hassan, Tarek A, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun. 2019. “Firm-level political risk: Measurement and effects.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 (4): 2135–2202. Hau, Harald, and Sandy Lai. 2016. “Asset allocation and monetary policy: Evidence from the eurozone.” Journal of Financial Economics 120 (2): 309–329. Hau, Harald, and Helene Rey. 2008. “Global portfolio rebalancing under the microscope.” NBER Working Paper No. 14165. Heider, Florian, Farzad Saidi, and Glenn Schepens. 2019. “Life below zero: Bank lending under negative policy rates.” The Review of Financial Studies 32 (10): 3728–3761. IMF. 2019. “Institutional Investors: Falling Rates, Rising Risks.” In Global Financial Stability Report. Ioannidou, Vasso, Steven Ongena, and Jos´e-Luis Peydr´o. 2015. “Monetary policy, risk-taking, and pricing: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment.” Review of Finance 19 (1): 95–144. Ivashina, Victoria, and Josh Lerner. 2018. “Looking for Alternatives: Pension Investments around the World, 2008 to 2017.” mimeo. Jaroci´nski, Marek, and Peter Karadi. 2020. “Deconstructing monetary policy surprises—the role of information shocks.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12 (2): 1–43. Lian, Chen, Yueran Ma, and Carmen Wang. 2019. “Low interest rates and risktaking: Evidence from individual investment decisions.” The Review of Financial Studies 32 (6): 2107–2148. Lu, Lina, Matthew Pritsker, Andrei Zlate, Kenechukwu Anadu, and James Bohn. 2019. “Reach for yield by US public pension funds.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-048. Maddaloni, Angela, and Jos´e-Luis Peydr´o. 2011. “Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision, and low interest rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the US lending standards.” The Review of Financial Studies 24 (6): 2121–2165. Merton, Robert C. 1983. “On the role of social security as a means for efficient risk sharing in an economy where human capital is not tradable.” In Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, 325–358. University of Chicago Press. Mohan, Nancy, and Ting Zhang. 2014. “An analysis of risk-taking behavior for public defined benefit pension plans.” Journal of Banking & Finance 40:403–419. Nakamura, Emi, and J´on Steinsson. 2018. “High-frequency identification of monetary non-neutrality: the information effect.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 133 (3): 1283–1330. Novy-Marx, Robert, and Joshua Rauh. 2011. “Public pension promises: how big are they and what are they worth?” The Journal of Finance 66 (4): 1211–1249. Novy-Marx, Robert, and Joshua D Rauh. 2009. “The liabilities and risks of statesponsored pension plans.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (4): 191–210. OECD. 2019. Annual Survey of Investment Regulation of Pension Funds. Olea, Jos´e Luis Montiel, and Carolin Pflueger. 2013. “A robust test for weak instruments.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 31 (3): 358–369. Ozdagli, Ali K, and Zixuan Kevin Wang. 2019. “Interest Rates and Insurance Company Investment Behavior.” mimeo. Rajan, Raghuram G. 2006. “Has finance made the world riskier?” European Financial Management 12 (4): 499–533. Rauh, Joshua D. 2009. “Risk shifting versus risk management: Investment policy in corporate pension plans.” The Review of Financial Studies 22 (7): 2687–2733. Rousov´a, Linda, and Margherita Giuzio. 2019. “Insurers’ investment strategies: pro-or countercyclical?” ECB Working Paper No. 2299. Stein, Jeremy C. 2013. “Overheating in credit markets: origins, measurement, and policy responses.” Speech given to the symposium on Restoring Household Financial Stability After the Great Recession, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, February, Volume 7. Timmer, Yannick. 2018. “Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions.” Journal of Financial Economics 129 (2): 268–286. Watson, Willis Towers. 2019. Thinking Ahead Institute: Global Pension Assets Study 2019. Wu, Jing Cynthia, and Fan Dora Xia. 2016. “Measuring the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy at the zero lower bound.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48 (2-3): 253–291. 35 |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/116209 |