Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier (2018): Estimación del equilibrio del mercado inmobiliario. Published in: Working Papers No. 101 (1 September 2018)
Preview |
PDF
DT_equilibrio101_mpra_v2.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to estimate the equilibrium of the housing market by using the months’ supply indicator as the key variable, since it establishes a relationship between supply and demand. It is understood that this relationship tends to equilibrium in the long-run, enabling the estimation of the equilibrium parameter through several statistical techniques. Finally, by comparing the estimated equilibrium values with aggregated market data it is possible to identify periods of boom and bust in the real estate market.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Estimación del equilibrio del mercado inmobiliario |
English Title: | Real estate market equilibrium estimation |
Language: | Spanish |
Keywords: | housing, real estate, equilibrium, months’ supply |
Subjects: | R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location |
Item ID: | 118260 |
Depositing User: | Francisco-Javier Lozano Navarro |
Date Deposited: | 18 Sep 2023 07:36 |
Last Modified: | 18 Sep 2023 07:36 |
References: | Buckland, S. T.; Burnham, K. P.; Augustin, N. H. (1997). “Model Selection: An Integral Part of Inference”. Biometrics 53, 603-618. Burnside, C.; Eichenbaum, M.; Rebelo, S. (2016). “Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets”. Journal of Political Economy 124, No. 4, August 2016. Conefrey, T.; Whelan, K. (2013). “Supply, Demand and Prices in the US Housing Market”. UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series, WP13/07, University College Dublin, School of Economics. Díaz, A.; Jerez, B. (2009). “House Prices, Sales and Time on the Market: A Search-Theoretic Framework”. Working Paper 09-25, Economic Series (15), March 2009, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Ehrlich, G. (2011). “A Model of Sales, Prices and Liquidity in the Housing Market” Unpublished Manuscript. Gonzalo, J. (1994). “Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships”. Journal of Econometrics 60 (1-2), 203-233. Granger, C. W. J.; Lee, T. H. (1989). “Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-Symmetric Error Correction Models”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 4, pp. S154-S159. Head, A.; Lloyd-Ellis, H.; Sun, H. (2014). “Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction”. The American Economic Review 104, No. 4, 1172-1210. Hedlund, A. (2016). “The cyclical dynamics of illiquid housing, debt, and foreclosures”. Quantitative Economics 7, 289-328. Johansen, S. (1988). “Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp. 231-254. Khan, J. A. (2000). “Explaining the Gap between New Home Sales and Inventories”. Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Vol. 6, No. 6. Khan, A.; Thomas, J. K. (2007). “Inventories and the Business Cycle: An Equilibrium Analysis of (S, s) Policies”. The American Economic Review, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Sep., 2007), pp. 1165-1188. Klyuev, V. (2008). “What Goes Up Must Come Down? House Price Dynamics in the United States”. IMF Working Paper WP/08/187, International Monetary Fund. Leamer, E. E. (2007). “Housing is the business cycle”. NBER Working Paper No. 13428. Lozano, F. J. (2017). “Resultados de la encuesta sobre inversión inmobiliaria en vivienda”. Minuta Nº 30, Subgerencia de Estudios, Cámara Chilena de la Construcción. Lozano, F. J. (2015). “Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago”. Documento de Trabajo Nº 80, Cámara Chilena de la Construcción. Mayer, C. J., & Somerville, C. T. (1996a). “Regional housing supply and credit constraints”. New England Economic Review, (November/December), 39–51. Moral-Benito, E. (2011). “Model averaging in economics”. Documentos de trabajo del Banco de España, (23), 5-47. National Association of Realtors (2018). “What methodology is used to calculate months’ supply?” Research Data FAQ. Retrieved from https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-data-faq. Ngai, L. R.; Tenreyro, S. (2014). “Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market”. American Economic Review 2014, 104(12):3991-4026. Realtor (2007). “Absorption Rate Key to Successful Pricing”. Daily Real Estate News, November 14 2007. Schnure, C. (2005). “Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing: The Changing Role of Financial Structure”. IMF Working Paper WP/05/200, International Monetary Fund. Topel, R.; Rosen, S. (1988). “Housing Investment in the United States”. Journal of Political Economy 96, No. 4, 718-740. Wheaton, W. C. (1990). “Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model”. Journal of Political Economy 98, No. 6, 1270-1292. U.S. Census Bureau (2018). “What is a months’ supply?” New Residential Sales FAQs. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/faqs/faqs_nrs_release.html. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/118260 |