Climate Change Impact on Paddy Yield in Indonesia: Farmers' Experience based on the 2021 Crop-Cutting Survey's Results

Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky and Kadir, Kadir (2023): Climate Change Impact on Paddy Yield in Indonesia: Farmers' Experience based on the 2021 Crop-Cutting Survey's Results.

Abstract

Climate change is a critical issue for food insecurity in many countries. It can disrupt food availability since it potentially results in the reduction of agricultural yield and eventually threatens smallholder farmers' livelihood and food security in the future. In the context of Indonesia, paddy cultivation, as one of the primary crop commodities, is also prone to climatic issues, such as floods and drought. However, to our knowledge, studies examining climate change's impact on the yield of paddy utilizing the nationwide survey in Indonesia are still limited. Hence, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the wetland and dryland paddy yield in Indonesia. In doing so, we applied a logistics regression to the 2021 Indonesian Crop-Cutting Survey results. The survey is conducted annually by Indonesian Statistical Agency (BPS) to obtain the yield data and information related to farmers' perceptions of climate change's impact on yield. After applying a logistics model to 50,619 wetland paddy crop samples and 1,081 dryland paddy crop samples, we found that paddy growers experiencing events resulting from climate change are more likely to have a higher probability of experiencing a decrease in their paddy yield than those who did not experience them, which is 2.23 times higher for wetland paddy and 1.77 times higher for dryland paddy. Besides, an incline in pest attack intensity and water insufficiency are also found to impact paddy yield reduction significantly. Further, based on kernel density distribution between groups of farmers, our finding pointed out that the yield of farmers affected by climatic issues, experiencing an increase in pest attacks, and facing water shortage, is slightly to the left of the opposite groups, which means that they are significantly lower than those unaffected. To conclude, this finding confirms that climate change, pest attacks, and insufficient avail water play a non-negligible role as yield-reducing factors in Indonesia's wetland and dryland paddy production. Thus, the mitigation of climate change impact, better strategy for pest control, and improved water management in paddy cultivation are essential to maintaining paddy production's sustainability.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: climate change; yield; crop-cutting; paddy; Indonesia
• Subjects: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy

References

[1] Adams RM, Hurd BH, Lenhart S, Leary N. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate research. 1998 Dec 17;11(1):19-30.

[2] Chowdhury IU, Khan MA. The impact of climate change on rice yield in Bangladesh: a time series analysis. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences.2015;40(4):12-28. doi:10.18551/rjoas.2015-04.02

[3] Waggoner PE. Agriculture and a climate changed by more carbon dioxide. Changing Climate. 1983:383-418.

[4] Gornall J, Betts R, Burke E, Clark R, Camp J, Willett K, Wiltshire A. Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2010 Sep 27;365(1554):2973-89. doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0158

[5] Hulme M, editor. Climate Change and Southern Africa: An Exploration of Some Potential Impacts and Implications in the SADC Region: a Report Commissioned by WWF International and Co-ordinated by the Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich, UK. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia; 1996.

[6] Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S. Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations. Climate Change Series 91. Environment Department Papers, The World Bank, Washington, DC; 2003.

[7] Devkota N, Paija N. Impact of climate change on paddy production: evidence from Nepal. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development. 2020 Dec 10;17(1362-2020-1836):63-78. doi:10.37801/ajad2020.17.2.4

[8] Wheeler, T. R., Craufurd, P. Q., Ellis, R. H., Porter, J. R., & Vara Prasad, P. V. (2000). Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops Elsevier BV. doi:10.1016/s0167-8809(00)00224-3

[9] Vara Prasad PV, Boote KJ, Hartwell Allen Jr L, Thomas JM. Super‐optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at both ambient and elevated carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology. 2003 Dec;9(12):1775-87.doi:10.1046/j.1529-8817.2003.00708.x

[10] Porter JR, Semenov MA. Crop responses to climatic variation. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2005 Nov 29;360(1463):2021-35. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1752

[11] Li Y, Ye W, Wang M, Yan X. Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop yield impacts. Climate research. 2009 May 26;39(1):31-46.doi:10.3354/cr00797

[12] Kettlewell PS, Sothern RB, Koukkari WL. UK wheat quality and economic value are dependent on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Cereal Science. 1999 May 1;29(3):205-9. doi:10.1006/jcrs.1999.0258

[13] Busnita SS, Oktaviani R, Novianti T. How far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility?. International Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 2017 Sep 1;1(1):1-11.

[14] Fitriani F. Climate Changing Impact on Rice Production. Journal of Food System and Agribusiness. 2017 Apr 30. doi:10.25181/jofsa.v1i1.82

[15] Dhamira A, Irham I. The impact of climatic factors on rice production in Indonesia. Agro Ekonomi. 2020;31(1):46-60. doi:10.22146/ae.55153

[16] Faradiba F. Analysis of Climate Factors on Paddy Production in West Java. Atlantis Press; 2021. doi:10.2991/assehr.k.210615.046.

[17] Ansari A, Lin YP, Lur HS. Evaluating and adapting climate change impacts on rice production in Indonesia: a case study of the Keduang subwatershed, Central Java. Environments. 2021 Oct 29;8(11):117. doi:10.3390/environments8110117

[18] Khairulbahri M. Analyzing the impacts of climate change on rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Heliyon. 2021 Dec 1;7(12):e08515. doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08515

[19] Saputra H, Fahmid IM, Salman D. Impact of climate change on wetland paddy yield in Indonesia: analysis from crop-cutting survey (Ubinan) results. InIOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 2022 Dec 1 (Vol. 1107, No. 1, p. 012027). IOP Publishing.

[20] Hilalullaily R, Kusnadi N, Rachmina D. Analisis efisiensi usahatani padi di jawa dan luar jawa, kajian prospek peningkatan produksi padi nasional. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness). 2021 Dec 16;9(2):143-53.

[21] BPS. Pedoman Pencacahan Survei Ubinan Komoditas Padi Berbasis Kerangka Sampel Area (KSA). Badan Pusat Statistik, Jakarta; 2020.

[22] Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. Basic econometrics (5. ed., internat. ed. ed.). McGraw Hill, Boston [u.a.]; 2009.

[23] Van Kerm, P. Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata. 2003; 3(2), 148–156. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x0300300204

[24] Ubisi NR, Mafongoya PL, Kolanisi U, Jiri O. Smallholder farmer’s perceived effects of climate change on crop production and household livelihoods in rural Limpopo province, South Africa. Change and Adaptation in Socio-Ecological Systems. 2017 Jan 1;3(1):27-38. doi:10.1515/cass-2017-0003

[25] IPCC. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press; 2022 doi:10.1017/9781009325844.

[26] Sekaranom AB, Nurjani E, Nucifera F. Agricultural climate change adaptation in Kebumen, central Java, Indonesia. Sustainability. 2021 Jun 23;13(13):7069.