Jana, Arjun and Goli, Srinivas (2023): Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship. Forthcoming in: Journal of Demographic Economics
![]() |
PDF
MPRA_paper_121803.pdf Download (2MB) |
Abstract
This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate |
Subjects: | J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth |
Item ID: | 121803 |
Depositing User: | Arjun Jana |
Date Deposited: | 31 Aug 2024 10:34 |
Last Modified: | 31 Aug 2024 10:34 |
References: | Arbia, G., Espa, G., & Giuliani, D. (2021). Spatial microeconometrics. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. Arizpe, L., Stone, M. P., Major, D., & Stone, P. (2019). Population and Environment: Rethinking the Debate (1st ed.). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781000235791 Ausubel, J. H., Wernick, I. K., & Waggoner, P. E. (2013). Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing. Population and Development Review, 38(s1), 221–242. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00561.x Banerjee, A., & Iyer, L. (2005). History, Institutions, and Economic Performance: The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India. American Economic Review, 95(4), 1190–1213. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825574 Barretto, A. G. O. P., Berndes, G., Sparovek, G., & Wirsenius, S. (2013). Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land‐use patterns: An analysis of the 1975–2006 period. Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1804–1815. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12174 Belotti, F., Hughes, G., & Mortari, A. P. (2017). Spatial panel-data models using Stata. The Stata Journal, 17(1), 139–180. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X170170010 Besley, T., & Burgess, R. (2000). Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, and Growth: Evidence from India. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(2), 389–430. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355300554809 Bilsborrow, R. (1987). Population pressures and agricultural development in developing countries: A conceptual framework and recent evidence. World Development, 15(2), 183–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(87)90077-5 Bilsborrow, R. (2022). Population and Agricultural Change. In L. M. Hunter, C. Gray, & J. Véron (Eds.), International Handbook of Population and Environment (Vol. 10, pp. 375–419). Springer International Publishing. Bilsborrow, R., & Geores, M. (2019). Population Change and Agricultural Intensification in Developing Countries. In L. Arizpe, M. P. Stone, D. Major, & P. Stone (Eds.), Population and Environment: Rethinking the Debate. Routledge. Bilsborrow, R., & Okoth Ogendo, H. W. O. (1992). Population-Driven Changes in Land Use in Developing Countries. Ambio, 21(1). https://www.jstor.org/stable/4313884 Bilsborrow, R., & Stupp, P. (1997). Demographic processes, land, and the environment in Guatemala. In A. Pebley & L. Rosero-Bixby (Eds.), Demographic diversity and change in the central American Isthmus (pp. 581–623). The Rand Corporation. Birdsall, N., Kelley, A. C., & Sinding, S. W. (Eds.). (2001). Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world. Oxford University Press. Blaikie, P., & Brookfield, H. (Eds.). (1987). Land Degradation and Society. Methuen. Bongaarts, J. (2023). Population and environment: The evolution of the debate between optimists and pessimists. Population and Environment, 45(2), 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00424-5 Boserup, E. (1965). The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure. George Allen and Urwin. Boserup, E. (1970). Present and potential food production in developing countries. In Geography and a crowding world. A symposium on population pressures upon physical and social resources in the developing lands. Oxford University Press. Boserup, E. (1981). Population and Technology: A Study in Long-Term Trends. Basil Blackwell. Boyce, J. K. (1987). Agrarian Impasse in Bengal: Agricultural Growth in Bangladesh and West Bengal, 1949-1980. Oxford University Press. Brander, J. A. (2007). Viewpoint: Sustainability: Malthus revisited?: Sustainability: Malthus revisited? Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d’économique, 40(1), 1–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00398.x Cameron, A. C., & Trivedi, P. K. (2005). Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge University Press. Carswell, G. (2002). Farmers and fallowing: Agricultural change in Kigezi District, Uganda. The Geographical Journal, 168(2), 130–140. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4959.00043 Census of India. (n.d.). Census of India Reports (1881-2011). Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner. Census of India. (2001). Primary Census Abstract [Data Set]. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner. https://censusindia.gov.in/census.website/data/census-tables Census of India. (2004). India Administrative Atlas, 1872-2001: A Historical Perspective of Evolution of Districts and States in India. Office of the Register General and Census Commissioner, Controller of Publications. Census of India. (2011a). Administrative Atlas of India. Office of the Register General and Census Commissioner. Census of India. (2011b). Primary Census Abstract [Data Set]. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner. https://censusindia.gov.in/census.website/data/census-tables Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). (2018). Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Count, Revision 11 [Dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7927/H4JW8BX5 Clark, C. (1967). Population Growth and Land Use. Macmillan. Coale, A. J., & Hoover, E. M. (2015). Population Growth and Economic Development. Princeton University Press. Codjoe, S. N. A., & Bilsborrow, R. (2011). Population and agriculture in the dry and derived savannah zones of Ghana. Population and Environment, 33(1), 80–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0139-z Cruz, M. C. (1999). Population pressure, economic stagnation, and deforestation in Costa Rica and the Philippines. In R. Bilsborrow & D. Hogan (Eds.), Population and deforestation in the humid tropics (pp. 99–121). International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Dasgupta, B. (1977). India s Green Revolution. Economic & Political Weekly, 12(6-7–8). https://www.jstor.org/stable/4365324 Dasgupta, P. (1992). Population, Resources, and Poverty. Ambio, 21(1), 95–101. Davis, K. (1945). The World Demographic Transition. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 237(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1177/000271624523700102 Davis, K. (1963). The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History. Population Index, 29(4), 345. https://doi.org/10.2307/2732014 Deb, S., Lynrah, M. M., & Tiwari, B. K. (2013). Technological innovations in shifting agricultural practices by three tribal farming communities of Meghalaya, northeast India. Tropical Ecology, 54(2). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287185486 Del Mar López, T., Aide, T. M., & Thomlinson, J. R. (2001). Urban Expansion and the Loss of Prime Agricultural Lands in Puerto Rico. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 30(1), 49–54. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447-30.1.49 DES. (n.d.). District-wise Statistics of Area, Production & Yield (APY), and Land Use Statistics (LUS). Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare. https://desagri.gov.in/ Dias, L. C. P., Pimenta, F. M., Santos, A. B., Costa, M. H., & Ladle, R. J. (2016). Patterns of land use, extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture. Global Change Biology, 22(8), 2887–2903. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13314 Dyson, T. (2018). A population history of India: From the first modern people to the present day (First Edition). Oxford University Press. Eckert, S., Kiteme, B., Njuguna, E., & Zaehringer, J. (2017). Agricultural Expansion and Intensification in the Foothills of Mount Kenya: A Landscape Perspective. Remote Sensing, 9(8), 784. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9080784 Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H., & Holdren, J. P. (1977). Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment. Freeman. Ehrlich, P. R., & Holdren, J. P. (1971). Impact of Population Growth: Complacency concerning this component of man’s predicament is unjustified and counterproductive. Science, 171(3977), 1212–1217. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212 Ewers, R. M., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Balmford, A., & Green, R. E. (2009). Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature? Global Change Biology, 15(7), 1716–1726. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01849.x Goli, S., & Arokiasamy, P. (2013). Demographic Transition in India: An Evolutionary Interpretation of Population and Health Trends Using ‘Change-Point Analysis’. PLoS ONE, 8(10), e76404. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0076404 Gray, C., & Bilsborrow, R. (2020). Stability and change within indigenous land use in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Global Environmental Change, 63, 102116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102116 Grigg, D. (1979). Ester Boserup’s theory of agrarian change: A critical review. Progress in Human Geography, 3(1), 64–84. https://doi.org/10.1177/030913257900300103 Hayami, Y., & Ruttan, V. W. (1987). Population Growth and Agricultural Productivity. In D. G. Johnson & R. D. Lee (Eds.), Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence. The University of Wisconsin Press. Heilig, G. K. (1994). Neglected Dimensions of Global Land-Use Change: Reflections and Data. Population and Development Review, 20(4), 831. https://doi.org/10.2307/2137664 Hoffmann, J. (2021). Demographic Change and Land Use. In T. Weith, T. Barkmann, N. Gaasch, S. Rogga, C. Strauß, & J. Zscheischler (Eds.), Sustainable Land Management in a European Context: A Co-Design Approach (pp. 63–74). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50841-8_4 ICRISAT, & TCI. (n.d.). District Level Database (DLD) for Indian agriculture and allied sectors [Data Set]. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) and Tata-Cornell Institute (TCI). http://data.icrisat.org/dld/index.html James, K. S., & Goli, S. (2016). Demographic Changes In India: Is The Country Prepared For The Challenge? The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 23. Johnson, D. G. (1997). On the resurgent population and food debate. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 41(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.00001 Jolly, C. L., & Torrey, B. B. (Eds.). (1993). Population and Land Use in Developing Countries. National Academy Press. Josephson, A. L., Ricker-Gilbert, J., & Florax, R. J. G. M. (2014). How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy, 48, 142–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.03.004 Kelley, A. C. (2001). The Population Debate in Historical Perspective: Revisionism Revised. In N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelley, & S. W. Sinding (Eds.), Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford University Press. Keyfitz, N. (1992). Completing the Worldwide Demographic Transition: The Relevance of Past Experience. Ambio, 21(1), 26–30. Knauer, K., Gessner, U., Fensholt, R., Forkuor, G., & Kuenzer, C. (2017). Monitoring Agricultural Expansion in Burkina Faso over 14 Years with 30 m Resolution Time Series: The Role of Population Growth and Implications for the Environment. Remote Sensing, 9(2), 132. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9020132 Kumar, H., & Somanathan, R. (2017). Creating Long Panels Using Census Data (1961–2001). 52(29). https://www.jstor.org/stable/26695694 Lam, D. (2011). How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History. Demography, 48(4), 1231–1262. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-011-0070-z Lam, D. (2023). Has the world survived the population bomb? A 10-year update. Population and Environment, 45(2), 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-023-00422-7 Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011). Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(9), 3465–3472. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108 Lele, U., & Stone, S. W. (1989). Population pressure, the environment and agricultural intensification: Variations on the Boserup hypothesis. In World Bank Group. World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/809971468739234405 Liu, L.-J., Song, M., Yokogawa, H., & Qu, B.-X. (2008). Exploring the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis between Economic Growth and Farmland Conversion in China. Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, 53(1), 321–327. https://doi.org/10.5109/10109 Liu, M., Shamdasani, Y., & Taraz, V. (2023). Climate change and labor reallocation: Evidence from six decades of the Indian Census. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15(2), 395–423. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20210129 Maertens, M., Zeller, M., & Birner, R. (2006). Sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas. Agricultural Economics, 34(2), 197–206. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0864.2006.00118.x Magazzino, C., Cerulli, G., Haouas, I., Unuofin, J. O., & Sarkodie, S. A. (2024). The drivers of GHG emissions: A novel approach to estimate emissions using nonparametric analysis. Gondwana Research, 127, 4–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2023.10.004 Magazzino, C., Cerulli, G., Shahzad, U., & Khan, S. (2023). The nexus between agricultural land use, urbanization, and greenhouse gas emissions: Novel implications from different stages of income levels. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 14(9), 101846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2023.101846 Magazzino, C., Mele, M., & Santeramo, F. G. (2021). Using an Artificial Neural Networks Experiment to Assess the Links among Financial Development and Growth in Agriculture. Sustainability, 13(5), 2828. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052828 Magazzino, C., & Santeramo, F. G. (2023). Financial development, growth and productivity. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(9), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-07-2022-0397 Malthus, T. R. (1973). An Essay on the Principle of Population. J. M. Dent & Sons Ltd. Manoharan, N., & Varkey, R. S. (2022). Agricultural credit and agricultural productivity across Indian states: An analysis. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), e2597. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2597 Mishra, V. (2002). Population growth and intensification of land use in India. International Journal of Population Geography, 8(5), 365–383. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijpg.266 Mukhopadhyay, S. (2001). Population Growth and Agricultural Development in India. In K. Srinivasan & M. Vlassoff (Eds.), Population-Development Nexus in India. Challenges for New Millennium. Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Ltd. Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population—The Long View. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the World. University of Chicago Press. Pender, J. L. (2001). Rural Population Growth, Agricultural Change and Natural Resource Management in Developing Countries: A Review of Hypotheses and Some Evidence from Honduras. In N. Birdsall, A. C. Kelly, & S. W. Sinding, Population Matters: Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. Oxford University Press. Perkins, D. H. (1969). Agricultural Development in China 1368-1968. Aldine Publishing Co. Pingali, P. L., & Binswanger, H. A. (1987). Population Density and Agricultural Intensification: A Study of the Evolution of Technologies in Tropical Agriculture. In D. G. Johnson & R. D. Lee (Eds.), Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence. The University of Wisconsin Press. Ramankutty, N., Mehrabi, Z., Waha, K., Jarvis, L., Kremen, C., Herrero, M., & Rieseberg, L. H. (2018). Trends in Global Agricultural Land Use: Implications for Environmental Health and Food Security. Annual Review of Plant Biology, 69(1), 789–815. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-arplant-042817-040256 Raven, P. H. (1990). Winners and losers in the twentieth century struggle to survive. Population and Development Review, 16(Supplement: Resources, Environment, and Population: Present Knowledge, Future Options), 259–267. https://doi.org/10.2307/2808076 Richards, J., & Flint, E. (1994). Historic Land Use and Carbon Estimates for South and Southeast Asia: 1880-1980 (NDP-046) [Dataset]. Environmental System Science Data Infrastructure for a Virtual Ecosystem; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (USA). https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/LUE.NDP046 Ricker-Gilbert, J., Jumbe, C., & Chamberlin, J. (2014). How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Malawi. Food Policy, 48, 114–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.02.006 Ritchie, H. (2019). Food production is responsible for one-quarter of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Published Online at OurWorldInData.Org. https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions Roy, P. S., & Roy, A. (2010). Land use and land cover change in India: A remote sensing & GIS prespective. Journal of the Indian Institute of Science, 90(4), 489–502. Sali, G. (2012). Agricultural Land Consumption in Developed Countries. International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) Triennial Conference, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.126431 Scherr, S. J., & Yadav, S. (2001). Land degradation in the developing world. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/2020dp/14.html Simon, J. L. (1981). The Ultimate Resource. Martin Robertson. Sindiga, I. (1984). Land and Population Problems in Kajiado and Narok, Kenya. African Studies Review, 27(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.2307/523948 Spera, S. (2017). Agricultural Intensification Can Preserve the Brazilian Cerrado: Applying Lessons From Mato Grosso and Goiás to Brazil’s Last Agricultural Frontier. Tropical Conservation Science, 10, 194008291772066. https://doi.org/10.1177/1940082917720662 Stiglitz, J. E. (1979). A neoclassical analysis of resources economics. In K. Smith (Ed.), Scarcity and Growth Reconsidered. John Hopkins University Press. Stonich, S. C. (1989). The Dynamics of Social Processes and Environmental Destruction: A Central American Case Study. Population and Development Review, 15(2), 269. https://doi.org/10.2307/1973705 Tachibana, T., Nguyen, T. M., & Otsuka, K. (2001). Agricultural Intensification versus Extensification: A Case Study of Deforestation in the Northern-Hill Region of Vietnam. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 41(1), 44–69. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1998.1131 Thompson, W. S. (1929). Population. American Journal of Sociology, 34(6), 959–975. https://doi.org/10.1086/214874 Tian, H., Banger, K., Bo, T., & Dadhwal, V. K. (2014). History of land use in India during 1880–2010: Large-scale land transformations reconstructed from satellite data and historical archives. Global and Planetary Change, 121, 78–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.07.005 Tiffen, M., Mortimore, M. J., & Gichuki, F. (1994). More people, less erosion: Environmental recovery in Kenya. Wiley. Turner, B. L., & Ali, A. M. S. (1996). Induced intensification: Agricultural change in Bangladesh with implications for Malthus and Boserup. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(25), 14984–14991. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.93.25.14984 Turner, B. L., & Fischer-Kowalski, M. (2010). Ester Boserup: An interdisciplinary visionary relevant for sustainability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(51), 21963–21965. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1013972108 United Nations. (1975). Comparative Study on Population Growth and Agricultural Change: C: Case Study in India. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and The Pacific. Van Vliet, J., Eitelberg, D. A., & Verburg, P. H. (2017). A global analysis of land take in cropland areas and production displacement from urbanization. Global Environmental Change, 43, 107–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.001 Vanneman, R., & Barnes, D. (2000). Indian District Data, 1961-1991: Machine-readable data file and codebook [Data Set]. Center on Population, Gender, and Social Inequality. http://vanneman.umd.edu/districts/index.html |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/121803 |