Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship

Jana, Arjun and Goli, Srinivas (2023): Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship. Forthcoming in: Journal of Demographic Economics

Abstract

This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts * 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted ‘U-shape’ relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961-2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

• Item Type: MPRA Paper
• Language: English
• Keywords: Population Growth; Agricultural Land; Land-Population Relationship; Dynamic Panel Data Analysis; Spatial Econometrics; Malthusian-Boserupian Debate
• Subjects: J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation ; Agriculture and Environment; Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics ; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q5 - Environmental Economics > Q56 - Environment and Development ; Environment and Trade ; Sustainability ; Environmental Accounts and Accounting ; Environmental Equity ; Population Growth

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