Koundouri, Phoebe and Pittis, Nikitas and Samartzis, Panagiotis and Englezos, Nikolaos and Papandreou, Andreas (2017): Alternative Types of Ambiguity and their Effects on Climate Change Regulation. Published in:
Preview |
PDF
MPRA_paper_122241.pdf Download (170kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper focuses on different types of ambiguity that affect climate change regulation. In particular, we analyze the effect of the interactions among three types of agents, namely, the decision maker (DM), the experts and the society, on the probabilistic properties of green-house gas (GHG) emissions and the formation of environmental policy, under two types of ambiguity: "deferential ambiguity" and "preferential ambiguity". Deferential ambiguity refers to the uncertainty that DM faces concerning to which expert's forecast (scenario) to defer. Preferential ambiguity stems from the potential inability of DM to correctly discern the society's preferences about the desired change of GHG emissions. This paper shows that the existence of deferential and preferential ambiguities have significant effects on GHG emissions regulation.
Item Type: | MPRA Paper |
---|---|
Original Title: | Alternative Types of Ambiguity and their Effects on Climate Change Regulation |
Language: | English |
Keywords: | decision making on climate change, ambiguity, deep uncertainty, deferential ambiguity, preferential ambiguity, tail risks of environmental-policy variables. |
Subjects: | C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y1 - Data: Tables and Charts Z - Other Special Topics > Z1 - Cultural Economics ; Economic Sociology ; Economic Anthropology > Z10 - General |
Item ID: | 122241 |
Depositing User: | Prof. Phoebe Koundouri |
Date Deposited: | 16 Oct 2024 13:19 |
Last Modified: | 16 Oct 2024 13:19 |
References: | Al-Najjar, N. and J. L. Weinstein, 2009, The Ambiguity Aversion Literature: A Critical Assessment, Economics and Philosophy, 25: 249-284. Baillon A, Cabantous L, Wakker P.P., 2012, Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 44:115-147. Carnap, R., 1950, Logical Foundations of Probability, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Clemen, R.T. and R. L. Winkler, 1999, Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis, Risk Analysis, 19(2): 187-203. Coenen, F., D. Huitema, and L. OíToole, Jr., eds. 1998, Participation and the quality of environmental decision making, Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer. French, S., 1981, Updating of belief in the light of someone elseís opinion, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. A 143 43-48. Gilboa, I. and D. Schmeidler, 1989, Maxmin Expected Utility with a Non-Unique Prior, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 18: 141-153. Heal G. and A. Millner, 2014, Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate Change Economics, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 8.1, 120-137. IPCC, 1997, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Geneva: Cambridge University Press. IPCC, 2013, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York: Cambridge University Press. Jacobs R. A., 1995, Methods for combining experts probability assessments, Neural Computation, vol. 7, pp. 867-888. Klibanoff, P., M. Marinacci, and S. Mukerji, 2005, A Smooth Model of Decision Making under Ambiguity, Econometrica, 73: 1849-1892. Lempert R., S. Popper, and S. Bankes, 2003, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis, RAND Corporation (MR-1626). Lempert R., D. Groves, S. Popper, and S. Bankes, 2006, A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios, Management Science, 52(4). Lewis, D., 1980, A Subjectivist Guide to Objective Chance, In Richard C. Jeffrey, ed., Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, vol. II. Berkeley: University of California Press. Reprinted with postscripts in Lewis 1986, pp. 83-132. Lindley, D. V., 1985, Reconciliation of discrete probability distributions, Bayesian Statistics 2, North-Holland (Amsterdam). McKitrick, Ross R., 2014, Climate Policy Implications of the Hiatus in Global Warming, Vancouver: Fraser Institute, October 2, 2014. Meacham, C., 2007, Chance and the Dynamics of De Se Beliefs, Doctoral Dissertation. Press, D., 1994, Democratic dilemmas in the age of ecology. Trees and toxics in the American West, Durham. Schmeidler, D., 1989, Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity, Econometrica, 57: 571-587. Tunney, R.J., and F.V. Ziegler, 2015, Surrogate utility estimation by long-term partners and unfamiliar dyads, Frontiers in Psychology, 6. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00315. |
URI: | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/122241 |